This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Watkins Glen Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Watkins Glen Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Road Course (left and right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 14th
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-9 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished inside the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (23 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 40 of 876, 4.57%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 342 of 876, 39.04%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 370 of 876, 42.24%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 23, 17.39%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 103 of 230, 44.78%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: Michael McDowell
Disappointment: Bubba Wallace
This is how the Xfinity race ended for SVG yesterday, but today is a new day and according to the projection he ends up in Victory Lane at the end of the Cup race. Photo by David Hahn — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 19th -17 |
| 3. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 4th +0 |
| 5. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 20th -15 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 26th -19 |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 33rd -25 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 10th -1 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th -4 |
| 11. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 5th +6 |
| 12. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 39th -27 |
| 13. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 9th +4 |
| 14. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6th +8 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevear | 18th -3 |
| 16. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 22nd -6 |
| 17. | 7 | Justin Haley | 27th -10 |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 16th +2 |
| 19. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 13th +6 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 11th +9 |
| 21. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 31st -10 |
| 22. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 25th -3 |
| 23. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 7th +16 |
| 24. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 28th -4 |
| 25. | 41 | Cole Custer | 34th -9 |
| 26. | 38 | Zane Smith | 17th +9 |
| 27. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 8th +20 |
| 29. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 38th -9 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 32nd -2 |
| 31. | 21 | Josh Berry | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 21st +11 |
| 33. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 30th +3 |
| 34. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 36th -2 |
| 35. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 37th -2 |
| 36. | 43 | Erik Jones | 12th +24 |
| 37. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 15th +22 |
| 38. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd +15 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 29th +10 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.