To begin with, I’d like to point out that prior to the beginning of the playoffs I felt that Chase Briscoe was the championship favorite. I share the X post below as proof.
— Gregory Latham Jr (@B7grWinning) August 24, 2025
Clearly, in this playoff era, it has become all about timing. When a team gets hot is what matters most. Chase Briscoe and the 19 JGR team seem to have heated up at just the right time. This is why I not only stand by my pick for him to win it all this year, but it is also why I believe he has to be considered the favorite. This is especially true after winning the first race of the playoffs at Darlington in the Southern 500.
So, sorry-not-sorry, Denny Hamlin. Joe Gibbs Racing has the best chance of ending Team Penske’s run, but that best chance is with Chase Briscoe. Last year, I was hoping for Chase Briscoe to win it all in Stewart-Haas Racing’s final season. After all, that would have made for a great story. This year, however, it’s all about his recent on-track performance.
Image Credit: Gregory Latham — Pit Pass Network
Briscoe’s First Season at JGR Thus Far
What a difference a year (and a new team) makes in NASCAR, even for the same driver winning the same race. Last year, Briscoe’s Southern 500 win meant that Stewart-Haas Racing would be in the playoffs in their final year of existence. It gave Stewart-Haas fans somewhat of a long shot hope for a championship in their final year. This year, Briscoe’s Southern 500 wins means that he has already advanced to the round of 12. Given his performance with his new team, Joe Gibbs Racing, I believe it makes him the championship favorite.
Forget that Briscoe nearly sat on the pole for all four crown jewel events this season. (Unfortunately, Hamlin barely beat him for the pole in the last of them, the Southern 500.) Let’s look at his performance this year versus his whole cup career. This season he has 11 top 5 finishes, two of which are wins. During his three previous years at SHR driving the number 14 Ford, he had 12 top 5 finishes, two of which were wins. Chase Briscoe has doubled his number of wins this season. Furthermore, he nearly doubled his top 5 finishes in his first year at JGR.
This says a lot. Stewart-Haas Racing was in its declining years during Briscoe’s tenure there, but he still won races and ran well. This year started out looking like a typical Briscoe season, but after the team had some time together it is beginning to look like something else.
Image Credit Logan Riely –Getty Images
Real Momentum
Ultimately, this 19 team seems to have real momentum going for it right now. In the last eight races, Briscoe’s lowest finish was 23rd at Daytona. He had a 13th place at Richmond and an 18th place at Indy. Sonoma, Dover, and Iowa were all 2nd place finishes. At Watkins Glen he finished 5th. Obviously, he won at Darlington. These are the kinds of runs that Kevin Harvick would often put together during those early years at Stewart-Haas (and also during the late 2010s as well, to be fair).
In many ways, Chase Briscoe’s first season at Joe Gibbs Racing reminds me of Harvick’s early years at SHR. Harvick eclipsed Tony Stewart during those first years as teammates, much the way Chase Briscoe could be beginning to eclipse Denny Hamlin at JGR. If Briscoe wins the title this year, I think he does eclipse Hamlin at JGR. I digress, that’s a story for another article at another time.
Clearly, Chase Briscoe has momentum on his side. It’s real momentum too, not just an upset win. This team consistently has speed. I believe the tracks in the playoffs also benefit him.
Image Credit: Chase Briscoe’s X/Twitter
The Road Ahead
Given the nature of the playoffs, we really don’t need to look at Gateway and Bristol. Yet, I will still mention that Bristol is a good track for Briscoe. He finished 4th in the spring race this year and 8th in the night race last year. He very well could win some stages or even another race and in the process, make the round of 12 even safer for him.
At New Hampshire last year, Briscoe finished 2nd. He also finished 4th in the spring race at Kansas this year. Furthermore, Toyota always seems to do well at Kansas. The one wild card in the round of 12 will be the Roval. The highest he has ever finished at the Roval was 9th back in 2022. If one looks at his most recent road courses this year, he has a second place at Sonoma and a 5th place at Watkins Glen. SVG will likely win the Roval, and this could be problematic if SVG makes it to the round of 12. I still think Briscoe makes it through to the round of 8 relatively easy however.
Briscoe can run well at Las Vegas, Talladega, and Martinsville. You never know what is going to happen at Talladega. Briscoe finished 4th in the Daytona 500 this year. I feel like Martinsville will be the best chance to win his way into the championship round however. Given his momentum, I think even without a win in that round of 8 he can easily point his way into the championship. Don’t forget; Phoenix is where he got his first win. So of course, as of right now, I believe Chase Briscoe is the favorite to win the 2025 Cup series Championship!