Last week we got to see Denny Hamlin become the 2nd Joe Gibbs Racing driver to clinch their spot into the Round of 12 as he won at Gateway. Now, we head to Bristol where 16 Playoff drivers will be cut down to 12. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 12. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

If no driver below the cut wins this weekend then Kyle Larson is safely on to the Round of 12, but if someone does he’s not necessarily in the clear. Photo by Keith Gillett — Iconsportswire

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Chase Briscoe
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 1st, 2nd
      • Clinched based on win at Darlington
2) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 1st, 7th
      • Clinched based on win at Gateway
3) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 12th, 19th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
        • Be within 9 points of Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 17 points of Ryan Blaney
        • Be within 20 points of William Byron
        • Be within 22 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 27 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 31 points of Chase Elliott
        • Be within 38 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 40 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 48 points of Austin Cindric
4) Bubba Wallace
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 6th, 8th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 7 points (30th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 11+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • Be within 7 points of Ryan Blaney
        • Be within 10 points of William Byron
        • Be within 12 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 17 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 21 points of Chase Elliott
        • Be within 28 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 30 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 38 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 49 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 53 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 18 points (19th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if A. Dillon/SVG wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if Bowman/Berry wins
5) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 4th, 18th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 15 points (22nd place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 19+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 9+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 2 points of William Byron
        • Be within 4 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 9 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 13 points of Chase Elliott
        • Be within 20 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 22 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 30 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 41 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 45 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if A. Dillon/SVG wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if Bowman/Berry wins
6) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 11th, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 18 points (19th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 21+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 12+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 4+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • Be within 1 point of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 6 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 10 points of Chase Elliott
        • Be within 17 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 19 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 27 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 38 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 42 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if A. Dillon/SVG wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if Bowman/Berry wins
7) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 2nd, 16th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 23+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 14+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 6+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 3+ points more than William Byron
        • Be within 4 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 8 points of Chase Elliott
        • Be within 15 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 17 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 25 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 37 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 41 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if A. Dillon/SVG wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if Bowman/Berry wins
8) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 7th, 29th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 25 points (12th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 28+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 19+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 11+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 8+ points more than William Byron
        • 6+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 3 points of Chase Elliott
        • Be within 10 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 12 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 20 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 31 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 35 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 55 points of Alex Bowman (AKA start the race)
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if A. Dillon/SVG/Bowman wins
      • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if Berry wins
9) Chase Elliott
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 3rd, 17th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 32+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 22+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 15+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 12+ points more than William Byron
        • 10+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 5+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • Be within 6 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 8 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 16 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 27 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 31 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 51 points of Alex Bowman
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 40 points (2nd place finish + 5 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if A. Dillon/SVG/Bowman wins
      • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if Berry wins
10) Joey Logano
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 5th, 20th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 39+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 29+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 22+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 19+ points more than William Byron
        • 17+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 12+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 8+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • Be within 1 point of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 9 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 20 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 24 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 44 points of Alex Bowman
        • Be within 54 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 47 points (2nd place finish + 12 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
11) Ross Chastain
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 11th, 24th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 41+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 32+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 24+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 21+ points more than William Byron
        • 19+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 14+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 10+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 3+ points more than Joey Logano
        • Be within 7 points of Austin Cindric
        • Be within 18 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 22 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 42 points of Alex Bowman
        • Be within 52 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
12) Austin Cindric
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 12th, 19th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 49+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 40+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 32+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 29+ points more than William Byron
        • 27+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 22+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 18+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 11+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 9+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • Be within 10 points of Austin Dillon
        • Be within 14 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 34 points of Alex Bowman
        • Be within 44 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline
13) Austin Dillon
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 18th, 23rd
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 43+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 40+ points more than William Byron
        • 38+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 33+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 29+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 22+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 20+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 12+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • Be within 3 points of Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 23 points of Alex Bowman
        • Be within 33 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
14) Shane Van Gisbergen
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 25th, 32nd
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 47+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 44+ points more than William Byron
        • 42+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 37+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 33+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 26+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 24+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 16+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 5+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • Be within 19 points of Alex Bowman
        • Be within 29 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
15) Alex Bowman
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 26th, 31st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 53+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 46+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 44+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 36+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 25+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 21+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • Be within 9 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
16) Josh Berry
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 36th, 38th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 46+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 35+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 31+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 11+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

The 21 crew (and Josh Berry) aren’t technically in a must win situation, but with the improbable scenarios they have they might as well be. Photo by David Allio — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 1st, 2nd
      • Clinched based on win at Darlington
2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 1st, 7th
      • Clinched based on win at Gateway
3) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 12th, 19th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
        • Be within 9 points of the No.23
        • Be within 17 points of the No.12
        • Be within 20 points of the No.24
        • Be within 22 points of the No.45
        • Be within 28 points of the No.20
        • Be within 31 points of the No.9
        • Be within 38 points of the No.22
        • Be within 40 points of the No.1
        • Be within 48 points of the No.2
4) 23XI Racing No.23
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 6th, 8th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 7 points (30th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 11+ points more than the No.5
        • Be within 7 points of the No.12
        • Be within 10 points of the No.24
        • Be within 12 points of the No.45
        • Be within 18 points of the No.20
        • Be within 21 points of the No.9
        • Be within 28 points of the No.22
        • Be within 30 points of the No.1
        • Be within 38 points of the No.2
        • Be within 49 points of the No.3
        • Be within 53 points of the No.88
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 18 points (19th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.3/No.88 wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if the No.48/No.21 wins
5) Penske Racing No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 4th, 18th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 15 points (22nd place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 19+ points more than the No.5
        • 9+ points more than the No.23
        • Be within 2 points of the No.24
        • Be within 4 points of the No.45
        • Be within 10 points of the No.20
        • Be within 13 points of the No.9
        • Be within 20 points of the No.22
        • Be within 22 points of the No.1
        • Be within 30 points of the No.2
        • Be within 41 points of the No.3
        • Be within 45 points of the No.88
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.3/No.88 wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if the No.48/No.21 wins
6) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 11th, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 18 points (19th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 21+ points more than the No.5
        • 12+ points more than the No.23
        • 4+ points more than the No.12
        • Be within 1 point of the No.45
        • Be within 7 points of the No.20
        • Be within 10 points of the No.9
        • Be within 17 points of the No.22
        • Be within 19 points of the No.1
        • Be within 27 points of the No.2
        • Be within 38 points of the No.3
        • Be within 42 points of the No.88
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.3/No.88 wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if the No.48/No.21 wins
7) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 2nd, 16th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 23+ points more than the No.5
        • 14+ points more than the No.23
        • 6+ points more than the No.12
        • 3+ points more than the No.24
        • Be within 5 points of the No.20
        • Be within 8 points of the No.9
        • Be within 15 points of the No.22
        • Be within 17 points of the No.1
        • Be within 25 points of the No.2
        • Be within 37 points of the No.3
        • Be within 41 points of the No.88
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.3/No.88 wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if the No.48/No.21 wins
8) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 7th, 29th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 29+ points more than the No.5
        • 20+ points more than the No.23
        • 12+ points more than the No.12
        • 9+ points more than the No.24
        • 7+ points more than the No.45
        • Be within 2 points of the No.9
        • Be within 9 points of the No.22
        • Be within 11 points of the No.1
        • Be within 19 points of the No.2
        • Be within 30 points of the No.3
        • Be within 34 points of the No.88
        • Be within 54 points of the No.48
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 37 points (2nd place finish + 2 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.3/No.88/No.48wins
      • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if the No.21 wins
9) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 3rd, 17th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 32+ points more than the No.5
        • 22+ points more than the No.23
        • 15+ points more than the No.12
        • 12+ points more than the No.24
        • 10+ points more than the No.45
        • 4+ points more than the No.20
        • Be within 6 points of the No.22
        • Be within 8 points of the No.1
        • Be within 16 points of the No.2
        • Be within 27 points of the No.3
        • Be within 31 points of the No.88
        • Be within 51 points of the No.48
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 40 points (2nd place finish + 5 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.3/No.88/No.48 wins
      • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if the No.21 wins
10) Penske Racing No.22
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 5th, 20th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 39+ points more than the No.5
        • 29+ points more than the No.23
        • 22+ points more than the No.12
        • 19+ points more than the No.24
        • 17+ points more than the No.45
        • 11+ points more than the No.20
        • 8+ points more than the No.9
        • Be within 1 point of the No.1
        • Be within 9 points of the No.2
        • Be within 20 points of the No.3
        • Be within 24 points of the No.88
        • Be within 44 points of the No.48
        • Be within 54 points of the No.21
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 47 points (2nd place finish + 12 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
11) Trackhouse Racing No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 11th, 24th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 41+ points more than the No.5
        • 32+ points more than the No.23
        • 24+ points more than the No.12
        • 21+ points more than the No.24
        • 19+ points more than the No.45
        • 13+ points more than the No.20
        • 10+ points more than the No.9
        • 3+ points more than the No.22
        • Be within 7 points of the No.2
        • Be within 18 points of the No.3
        • Be within 22 points of the No.88
        • Be within 42 points of the No.48
        • Be within 52 points of the No.21
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
12) Penske Racing No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 12th, 19th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 49+ points more than the No.5
        • 40+ points more than the No.23
        • 32+ points more than the No.12
        • 29+ points more than the No.24
        • 27+ points more than the No.45
        • 21+ points more than the No.20
        • 18+ points more than the No.9
        • 11+ points more than the No.22
        • 9+ points more than the No.1
        • Be within 10 points of the No.3
        • Be within 14 points of the No.88
        • Be within 34 points of the No.48
        • Be within 44 points of the No.21
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline
13) Richard Childress Racing No.3
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 18th, 23rd
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than the No.23
        • 43+ points more than the No.12
        • 40+ points more than the No.24
        • 38+ points more than the No.45
        • 32+ points more than the No.20
        • 29+ points more than the No.9
        • 22+ points more than the No.22
        • 20+ points more than the No.1
        • 12+ points more than the No.2
        • Be within 3 points of the No.88
        • Be within 23 points of the No.48
        • Be within 33 points of the No.21
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
14) Trackhouse Racing No.88
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 25th, 32nd
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than the No.23
        • 47+ points more than the No.12
        • 44+ points more than the No.24
        • 42+ points more than the No.45
        • 36+ points more than the No.20
        • 33+ points more than the No.9
        • 26+ points more than the No.22
        • 24+ points more than the No.1
        • 16+ points more than the No.2
        • 5+ points more than the No.3
        • Be within 19 points of the No.48
        • Be within 29 points of the No.21
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
15) Hendrick Motorsports No.48
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 26th, 31st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 53+ points more than the No.9
        • 46+ points more than the No.22
        • 44+ points more than the No.1
        • 36+ points more than the No.2
        • 25+ points more than the No.3
        • 21+ points more than the No.88
        • Be within 9 points of the No.21
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
16) Wood Brothers Racing No.21
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 16: 36th, 38th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than the No.1
        • 46+ points more than the No.2
        • 35+ points more than the No.3
        • 31+ points more than the No.88
        • 11+ points more than the No.48
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above