Last week in the Southern 500 we got to see a good ole fashion butt whoopin’ as Chase Briscoe led nearly 85% of the laps in route to clinching his spot in the Round of 12. Next up we head to a track that is appearing in the Playoffs for the first time, Gateway. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 12. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Last week Chase Briscoe clinched his way through to the Round of the 12 with his victory at Darlington. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Chase Briscoe
      • Clinched based on win at Darlington
2) Denny Hamlin
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 52+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 49+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 39+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 39+ points more than William Byron
        • 36+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 35+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 26+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 25+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 23+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 17+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 14+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 9+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • Be within 2 points of Alex Bowman
        • Be within 2 points of Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
3) Kyle Larson
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 44+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 44+ points more than William Byron
        • 41+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 40+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 31+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 30+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 28+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 22+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 19+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 14+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 3+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 3+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
4) Tyler Reddick
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 47+ points more than William Byron
        • 44+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 43+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 34+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 33+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 31+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 25+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 22+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 17+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 6+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 6+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
5) Bubba Wallace
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 53+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 44+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 43+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 41+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 35+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 32+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 27+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 16+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 16+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
6) William Byron
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than Ryan Blaney
        • 53+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 44+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 43+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 41+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 35+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 32+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 27+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 16+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 16+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
7) Ryan Blaney
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 46+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 44+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 38+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 35+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 30+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 19+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 19+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
8) Ross Chastain
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 48+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 47+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 45+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 39+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 36+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 31+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 20+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 20+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
9) Austin Cindric
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 48+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 45+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 40+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 29+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 29+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
10) Christopher Bell
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 49+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 46+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 41+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 30+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 30+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
11) Chase Elliott
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than Shane Van Gisbergen
        • 48+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 43+ points more than Austin Dillon
        • 32+ points more than Alex Bowman
        • 32+ points more than Josh Berry
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
12) Shane Van Gisbergen
      • Only way to clinch is to win
Cutline
13) Joey Logano
      • Only way to clinch is to win
14) Austin Dillon
      • Only way to clinch is to win
15) Alex Bowman
      • Only way to clinch is to win
16) Josh Berry
      • Only way to clinch is to win

The 22 team currently finds themselves below the Owner cutline, but they have won at Gateway before so they could easily be above the cutline after this weekend. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
      • Clinched based on win at Darlington
2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than the No.5
        • 48+ points more than the No.45
        • 38+ points more than the No.23
        • 38+ points more than the No.24
        • 35+ points more than the No.12
        • 34+ points more than the No.1
        • 25+ points more than the No.2
        • 24+ points more than the No.20
        • 22+ points more than the No.9
        • 16+ points more than the No.88
        • 13+ points more than the No.22
        • 8+ points more than the No.3
        • Be within 3 points of the No.48
        • Be within 3 points of the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
3) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than the No.45
        • 44+ points more than the No.23
        • 44+ points more than the No.24
        • 41+ points more than the No.12
        • 40+ points more than the No.1
        • 31+ points more than the No.2
        • 29+ points more than the No.20
        • 28+ points more than the No.9
        • 22+ points more than the No.88
        • 19+ points more than the No.22
        • 14+ points more than the No.3
        • 3+ points more than the No.48
        • 3+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
4) 23XI Racing No.45
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than the No.23
        • 47+ points more than the No.24
        • 44+ points more than the No.12
        • 43+ points more than the No.1
        • 34+ points more than the No.2
        • 32+ points more than the No.20
        • 31+ points more than the No.9
        • 25+ points more than the No.88
        • 22+ points more than the No.22
        • 17+ points more than the No.3
        • 6+ points more than the No.48
        • 6+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
5) 23XI Racing No.23
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than the No.12
        • 53+ points more than the No.1
        • 44+ points more than the No.2
        • 42+ points more than the No.20
        • 41+ points more than the No.9
        • 35+ points more than the No.88
        • 32+ points more than the No.22
        • 27+ points more than the No.3
        • 16+ points more than the No.48
        • 16+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
6) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than the No.12
        • 53+ points more than the No.1
        • 44+ points more than the No.2
        • 42+ points more than the No.20
        • 41+ points more than the No.9
        • 35+ points more than the No.88
        • 32+ points more than the No.22
        • 27+ points more than the No.3
        • 16+ points more than the No.48
        • 16+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
7) Penske Racing No.12
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than the No.2
        • 45+ points more than the No.20
        • 44+ points more than the No.9
        • 38+ points more than the No.88
        • 35+ points more than the No.22
        • 30+ points more than the No.3
        • 19+ points more than the No.48
        • 19+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
8) Trackhouse Racing No.1
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 48+ points more than the No.2
        • 46+ points more than the No.20
        • 45+ points more than the No.9
        • 39+ points more than the No.88
        • 36+ points more than the No.22
        • 31+ points more than the No.3
        • 20+ points more than the No.48
        • 20+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
9) Penske Racing No.2
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than the No.20
        • 54+ points more than the No.9
        • 48+ points more than the No.88
        • 45+ points more than the No.22
        • 40+ points more than the No.3
        • 29+ points more than the No.48
        • 29+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
10) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 50+ points more than the No.88
        • 47+ points more than the No.22
        • 42+ points more than the No.3
        • 31+ points more than the No.48
        • 31+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
11) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than the No.88
        • 48+ points more than the No.22
        • 43+ points more than the No.3
        • 32+ points more than the No.48
        • 32+ points more than the No.21
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
12) Trackhouse Racing No.88
      • Only way to clinch is to win
Cutline
13) Penske Racing No.22
      • Only way to clinch is to win
14) Richard Childress Racing No.3
      • Only way to clinch is to win
15) Hendrick Motorsports No.48
      • Only way to clinch is to win
16) Wood Brothers Racing No.21
      • Only way to clinch is to win