Last week was pure Penske domination as now 2 of the 3 Penske cars are above the cutline and Ryan Blaney won, thus clinching his spot in the Round of 8. Now we head to Kansas to see if Penske can continue their momentum. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

By winning at New Hampshire last week Ryan Blaney did more than get to hold up the lobster trophy, he also clinched a spot in the Round of 8. Photo by Michael Bush — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Ryan Blaney
      • Clinched based on win at New Hampshire
2) William Byron
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 39+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 37+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 34+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 24+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 22+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 10+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 3+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • Be within 1 point of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 5 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
3) Kyle Larson
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 45+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 43+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 40+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 30+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 28+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 16+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 9+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 5+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 1+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
4) Christopher Bell
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 52+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 42+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 40+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 28+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 21+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 17+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 13+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
5) Denny Hamlin
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 44+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 42+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 30+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 23+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 19+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 15+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
6) Joey Logano
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 45+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 33+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 26+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 22+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 18+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
7) Chase Elliott
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 43+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 36+ points more than Austin Cindric
        • 32+ points more than Tyler Reddick
        • 28+ points more than Bubba Wallace
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
8) Chase Briscoe
      • Only way to clinch is to win
Cutline
9) Ross Chastain
      • Only way to clinch is to win
10) Austin Cindric
      • Only way to clinch is to win
11) Tyler Reddick
      • Only way to clinch is to win
12) Bubba Wallace
      • Only way to clinch is to win

Ross Chastain was able to finish in the Top 10 last week at New Hampshire, but unfortunately that wasn’t enough to get him on the right side of the cutline yet. Photo by David Hahn — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Team Penske No.12
      • Clinched based on win at New Hampshire
2) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than the No.5
        • 38+ points more than the No.20
        • 38+ points more than the No.11
        • 34+ points more than the No.22
        • 24+ points more than the No.9
        • 22+ points more than the No.19
        • 10+ points more than the No.1
        • 3+ points more than the No.2
        • Be within 1 point of the No.45
        • Be within 5 points of the No.23
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
3) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 44+ points more than the No.20
        • 44+ points more than the No.11
        • 40+ points more than the No.22
        • 30+ points more than the No.9
        • 28+ points more than the No.19
        • 16+ points more than the No.1
        • 9+ points more than the No.2
        • 5+ points more than the No.45
        • 1+ points more than the No.23
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 53+ points more than the No.22
        • 43+ points more than the No.9
        • 41+ points more than the No.19
        • 29+ points more than the No.1
        • 22+ points more than the No.2
        • 18+ points more than the No.45
        • 14+ points more than the No.23
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 53+ points more than the No.22
        • 43+ points more than the No.9
        • 41+ points more than the No.19
        • 29+ points more than the No.1
        • 22+ points more than the No.2
        • 18+ points more than the No.45
        • 14+ points more than the No.23
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
6) Team Penske No.22
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than the No.9
        • 45+ points more than the No.19
        • 33+ points more than the No.1
        • 26+ points more than the No.2
        • 22+ points more than the No.45
        • 18+ points more than the No.23
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
7) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than the No.19
        • 43+ points more than the No.1
        • 36+ points more than the No.2
        • 32+ points more than the No.45
        • 28+ points more than the No.23
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
8) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
      • Only way to clinch is to win
Cutline
9) Trackhouse Racing No.1
      • Only way to clinch is to win
10) Team Penske No.2
      • Only way to clinch is to win
11) 23XI Racing No.45
      • Only way to clinch is to win
12) 23XI Racing No.23
      • Only way to clinch is to win