Last week at Bristol saw Jake Garcia, Corey Heim, and Layne Riggs all be fast, but it was Riggs who came out the victor to clinch his spot in the Round of 8. Now we head to New Hampshire where two drivers and two owners will be eliminated from Playoff contention. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

After a tough Bristol race Jake Garcia is looking up to the cutline, but there are plenty of scenarios that give him a chance to be above the cutline after New Hampshire. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Corey Heim
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 1st, 3rd
      • Clinched based on win at Darlington
2) Layne Riggs
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 1st, 17th
      • Clinched based on win at Bristol
3) Daniel Hemric
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 2nd, 5th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 5 points (32nd place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 4 points of Ty Majeski
        • Be within 21 points of Grant Enfinger
        • Be within 22 points of Tyler Ankrum
        • Be within 33 points of Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 37 points of Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 51 points of Jake Garcia
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Garcia wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if Smith wins
4) Ty Majeski
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 4th, 4th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 11 points (26th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 6+ points more than Daniel Hemric
        • Be within 16 points of Grant Enfinger
        • Be within 16 points of Tyler Ankrum
        • Be within 27 points of Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 31 points of Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 45 points of Jake Garcia
        • Be within 55 points of Chandler Smith (AKA start the race)
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 25 points (12th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
5) Grant Enfinger
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 3rd, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 23+ points more than Daniel Hemric
        • 18+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 1+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • Be within 10 points of Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 14 points of Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 28 points of Jake Garcia
        • Be within 38 points of Chandler Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
6) Tyler Ankrum
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 7th, 20th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 23+ points more than Daniel Hemric
        • 18+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 1+ points more than Grant Enfinger
        • Be within 10 points of Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 14 points of Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 28 points of Jake Garcia
        • Be within 38 points of Chandler Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
7) Kaden Honeycutt
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 12th, 18th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 34+ points more than Daniel Hemric
        • 29+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 12+ points more than Grant Enfinger
        • 12+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • Be within 3 points of Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 17 points of Jake Garcia
        • Be within 27 points of Chandler Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
8) Rajah Caruth
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 12th, 15th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 38+ points more than Daniel Hemric
        • 33+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 16+ points more than Grant Enfinger
        • 16+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 5+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 13 points of Jake Garcia
        • Be within 23 points of Chandler Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above
Cutline
9) Jake Garcia
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 10th, 33rd
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 52+ points more than Daniel Hemric
        • 47+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 30+ points more than Grant Enfinger
        • 30+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 19+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • 15+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 9 points of Chandler Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above
10) Chandler Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 30th, 30th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 40+ points more than Grant Enfinger
        • 40+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 29+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • 25+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • 11+ points more than Jake Garcia
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above

While Rajah Caruth is above the Driver cutline the No.71 team is currently below the cutline. However, that could easily change by the end of the race this weekend. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) TRICON Garage No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 1st, 3rd
      • Clinched based on win at Darlington
2) Front Row Motorsports No.38
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 1st, 17th
      • Clinched based on win at Bristol
3) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 2nd, 5th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 20 points (17th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 4 points of the No.98
        • Be within 21 points of the No.9
        • Be within 23 points of the No.18
        • Be within 24 points of the No.7
        • Be within 30 points of the No.52
        • Be within 36 points of the No.71
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No. 71wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if the No.38 wins
4) ThorSport Racing No.98
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 4th, 4th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 6+ points more than the No.19
        • Be within 16 points of the No.9
        • Be within 17 points of the No.18
        • Be within 18 points of the No.7
        • Be within 24 points of the No.52
        • Be within 30 points of the No.71
        • Be within 54 points of the No.38
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 32 points (5th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
5) CR7 Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 3rd, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 23+ points more than the No.19
        • 18+ points more than Ty the No.98
        • 0+ points more than the No.18
        • Be within 1 point of the No.7
        • Be within 7 points of the No.52
        • Be within 13 points of the No.71
        • Be within 37 points of the No.38
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
6) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.18
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 7th, 20th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish +9 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 24+ points more than the No.19
        • 19+ points more than the No.98
        • 2+ points more than the No.9
        • 0+ points more than the No.7
        • Be within 6 points of the No.52
        • Be within 12 points of the No.71
        • Be within 36 points of the No.38
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
7) Spire Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 9th, 11th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 45 points (2nd place finish + 10 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 25+ points more than the No.19
        • 20+ points more than the No.98
        • 3+ points more than the No.9
        • 2+ points more than the No.18
        • Be within 5 points of the No.52
        • Be within 11 points of the No.71
        • Be within 35 points of the No.38
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above
8) Halmar Friesen Racing No.52
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 12th, 18th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 31+ points more than the No.19
        • 26+ points more than the No.98
        • 9+ points more than the No.9
        • 8+ points more than the No.18
        • 7+ points more than the No.7
        • Be within 5 points of the No.71
        • Be within 29 points of the No.38
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above
Cutline
9) Spire Motorsports No.71
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 12th, 15th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 37+ points more than the No.19
        • 32+ points more than the No.98
        • 15+ points more than the No.9
        • 14+ points more than the No.18
        • 13+ points more than the No.7
        • 7+ points more than the No.52
        • Be within 23 points of the No.38
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above
10) Front Row Motorsports No.38
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 10: 30th, 30th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 39+ points more than the No.9
        • 38+ points more than the No.18
        • 37+ points more than the No.7
        • 31+ points more than the No.52
        • 25+ points more than the No.71
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above