Last week at Portland Connor Zilisch put a stamp on the 2025 Xfinity Regular Season Championship for the 88 crew, now he’s looking to do the same for himself this weekend at Gateway. In addition, there are a few battles for final playoff spots that we’ll be keeping an eye on. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Playoffs. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Even after missing a race earlier this year Connor Zilisch is in control of his own destiny when it comes to clinching the Xfinity Regular Season Drivers Championship. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

Regular Season Championship
1) Connor Zilisch
Tiebreaker/best finishes this year: 1st (8)
      • Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs both of the following scenarios
        • Be within 20 points of Justin Allgaier
        • Be within 50 points of Sam Mayer
2) Justin Allgaier
Tiebreaker/ best finishes this year: 1st (3)
      • Needs both of the following scenarios
        • 21+ points more than Connor Zilisch
        • Be within 30 points of Sam Mayer
3) Sam Mayer
Tiebreaker/ best finishes this year: 1st (1)
      • Needs both of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than Connor Zilisch
        • 31+ points more than Justin Allgaier
Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios
10) Sheldon Creed
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd (2), 4th, 5th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 22 points (15th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
        • Be within 4 points of Taylor Gray
        • Be within 34 points of Harrison Burton
11) Taylor Gray
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd, 5th (2)
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Clinched
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
        • 6+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • Be within 29 points of Harrison Burton
12) Harrison Burton
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 3rd, 5th, 6th (2), 8th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • 35+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • 30+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • Be within 30 points of Jeb Burton
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 1* of the scenarios above if J. Burton wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if anyone below J. Burton in points wins
Cutline
13) Jeb Burton
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th (2)
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 3* of the following scenarios
        • 31+ points more than Harrison Burton
        • Be within 36 points of Ryan Sieg
        • Be within 38 points of Christian Eckes
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win

The little team that could has a long road ahead of them at Gateway, but it is still possible for the No.25 to get into the Xfinity Owners Playoff. Photo by David Allio — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

Regular Season Championship
1) JR Motorsports No.88
Tiebreaker/ best finishes this year: 1st (8)
      • Clinched
Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios
11) Haas Factory Team No.00
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd (2), 4th, 5th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 22 points (15th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 4 points of the No.54
        • Be within 34 points of the No.25
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.25 wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if anyone below the No.25 in points wins
12) Joe Gibbs Racing No.54
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd, 5th (2)
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • 6+ points more than the No.00
        • Be within 29 points of the No.25
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.25 wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if anyone below the No.25 in points wins
Cutline
13) AM Racing No.25
Tiebreaker/5 best finishes this year: 3rd, 5th, 6th (2), 8th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 35+ points more than the No.00
        • 30+ points more than the No.54
        • Be within 30 points of the No.27
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.27 wins
      • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if anyone below the No.27 in points wins