Last week was the last off weekend for the Xfinity Series, but the week before saw strategy play into the outcome as JRM dominated the race but Aric Almirola took home the victory. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.
*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario
Connor Zilisch has so many points that he controls his own destiny as far as clinching his Round of 8 spot on points this weekend. Photo by Jeff Robinson — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Driver Points Clinching Scenarios
1) Connor Zilisch
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 25+ points more than Justin Allgaier
- 7+ points more than Sam Mayer
- Be within 12 points of Carson Kvapil
- Be within 19 points of Harrison Burton
- Be within 20 points of Brandon Jones
- Be within 21 points of Sheldon Creed
- Be within 25 points of Taylor Gray
- Be within 28 points of Nick Sanchez
- Be within 28 points of Jesse Love
- Be within 41 points of Austin Hill
- Be within 49 points of Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 35 points (2nd place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 5* of the scenarios above
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2) Justin Allgaier
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 39+ points more than Sam Mayer
- 20+ points more than Carson Kvapil
- 13+ points more than Harrison Burton
- 12+ points more than Brandon Jones
- 11+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 7+ points more than Taylor Gray
- 4+ points more than Nick Sanchez
- 4+ points more than Jess Love
- Be within 9 points of Austin Hill
- Be within 17 points of Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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3) Sam Mayer
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 38+ points more than Carson Kvapil
- 31+ points more than Harrison Burton
- 30+ points more than Brandon Jones
- 29+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 25+ points more than Taylor Gray
- 22+ points more than Nick Sanchez
- 22+ points more than Jess Love
- 9+ points more than Austin Hill
- 1+ points more than Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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4) Carson Kvapil
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 50+ points more than Harrison Burton
- 49+ points more than Brandon Jones
- 48+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 44+ points more than Taylor Gray
- 41+ points more than Nick Sanchez
- 41+ points more than Jess Love
- 28+ points more than Austin Hill
- 20+ points more than Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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5) Harrison Burton
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 55+ points more than Sheldon Creed
- 51+ points more than Taylor Gray
- 48+ points more than Nick Sanchez
- 48+ points more than Jess Love
- 35+ points more than Austin Hill
- 27+ points more than Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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6) Brandon Jones
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 52+ points more than Taylor Gray
- 49+ points more than Nick Sanchez
- 49+ points more than Jess Love
- 36+ points more than Austin Hill
- 28+ points more than Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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7) Sheldon Creed
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- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 53+ points more than Taylor Gray
- 50+ points more than Nick Sanchez
- 50+ points more than Jess Love
- 37+ points more than Austin Hill
- 29+ points more than Sammy Smith
- Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
- Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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8) Taylor Gray
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Cutline
9) Nick Sanchez
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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10) Jesse Love
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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11) Austin Hill
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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12) Sammy Smith
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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With Aric Almirola winning in the 19 car at Bristol the JGR No.19 team has clinched their spot in the Xfinity Owners Round of 8. Photo by Jared C. Tilton — Getty Images
Owner Points Clinching Scenarios
1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
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- Clinched based on win at Bristol
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2) JR Motorsports No.88
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- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 29 points (8th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 20+ points more than the No.7
- 2+ points more than the No.41
- Be within 17 points of the No.1
- Be within 19 points of the No.21
- Be within 25 points of the No.20
- Be within 27 points of the No.00
- Be within 31 points of the No.54
- Be within 33 points of the No.48
- Be within 33 points of the No.2
- Be within 52 points of the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 31 points (6th place finish)
- -OR-
- Needs 5* of the scenarios above
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3) JR Motorsports No.7
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- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 39+ points more than the No.41
- 20+ points more than the No.1
- 18+ points more than the No.21
- 12+ points more than the No.20
- 10+ points more than the No.00
- 6+ points more than the No.54
- 4+ points more than the No.48
- 4+ points more than the No.2
- Be within 15 points of the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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4) Haas Factory Team No.41
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- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 38+ points more than the No.1
- 36+ points more than the No.21
- 30+ points more than the No.20
- 28+ points more than the No.00
- 24+ points more than the No.54
- 22+ points more than the No.48
- 22+ points more than the No.2
- 3+ points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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5) JR Motorsports No.1
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- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 55+ points more than the No.21
- 49+ points more than the No.20
- 47+ points more than the No.00
- 43+ points more than the No.54
- 41+ points more than the No.48
- 41+ points more than the No.2
- 22+ points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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6) Richard Childress Racing No.21
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- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
- 51+ points more than the No.20
- 49+ points more than the No.00
- 45+ points more than the No.54
- 43+ points more than the No.48
- 43+ points more than the No.2
- 24+ points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
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7) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
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- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
- 55+ points more than the No.00
- 51+ points more than the No.54
- 49+ points more than the No.48
- 49+ points more than the No.2
- 30+ points more than the No.8
- Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
- Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
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8) Haas Factory Team No.00
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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Cutline
9) Joe Gibbs Racing No.54
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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10) Big Machine Racing No.48
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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11) Richard Childress Racing No.2
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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12) JR Motorsports No.8
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- Only way to clinch is to win
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