NASCAR Playoffs: Will the First Four Out Make it Back?

Well the first round of the Cup series NASCAR Playoffs is over. Twelve teams are moving on, while four teams have been eliminated. Alex Bowman, Shane van Gisbergen, Josh Berry, and Austin Dillon will all continue to compete on the track. Still, they won’t have a chance to win the championships. They’ve been eliminated from the controversial NASCAR Playoffs.

While many will continue to debate, we do know that the playoffs will be back next season in some form or another. The question I am interested in trying to answer is whether or not the first four out will be back.

Alex Bowman #48 Hendrick Motorsports

While many fans don’t wish to even see Alex Bowman return to Hendrick Motorsports, at least Kyle Petty has his back. Whatever your opinion of him, Alex Bowman seems to always make the NASCAR Playoffs. While he did miss them in 2023, he missed three races during the regular season and failed to win a race that year. That 20th place points finish was his worst since joining Hendrick Motorsports full time. His highest points finish was 6th back in 2020.

Unless we get into a situation where we have 16 different winners in 2026, I’m not really worried about Alex Bowman making it back to the playoffs. Then again consistent drivers like Chris Buescher missed out this year due to not winning. I still expect Bowman to be in the NASCAR Playoffs next season. Still, I’d be a lot more comfortable with that expectation were they to make a crew chief change. Folks, Rodney Childers is available, and Hendrick has the money. Make a change.

Otherwise, I’m not sure how much longer Alex Bowman will even be in the #48 car, much less the NASCAR Playoffs! As long as he is in Hendrick equipment, I feel like he is more likely than not to make the playoffs next season.

Josh Berry #21 Wood Brothers Racing

I am much less sure about Josh Berry being back in the playoffs next season, barring some major changes. If not for his win at Las Vegas, he wouldn’t have made it this year. He had two top 5s in Stewart Haas’s final year, with a pair of third place finishes. One was at Darlington. The other was in New Hampshire. He has two top 5s this year. One was the win at Las Vegas. The other was a fourth place finish the week prior at Phoenix.

The playoffs sure didn’t seem to even want him this year. Berry had terrible luck. He finished last in all three opening round events. Berry clearly has talent. He could easily pull off a win next year, really anywhere besides a road course. Still, it’s not like SVG’s likelihood of winning at least one road course race next year.

Honestly, I think there’s a 50/50 chance of him making the playoffs next season. Could someone flip a coin?

Austin Dillon #3 Richard Childress Racing

In 12 seasons driving the famous #3 Chevy for Richard Childress Racing, Austin Dillon has managed to make the playoffs 6 times. In those six playoff appearances, his best finish is 11th. Dillon has managed to finish 11th in the final standings three different times.

Austin Dillon almost always feels like a sort of wild card when he makes the playoffs. It’s almost always due to some unexpected win. There was the Daytona win back in 2022. Also, there were Richmond wins the past two seasons. Only one of those got him into the playoffs though.

With Austin Dillon’s Richmond redemption story complete, I don’t see him winning next season. Kyle Busch can’t even win in RCR equipment these days. Sorry folks, Kyle Busch has a lot more talent than Austin Dillon. Unfortunately for Kyle, he also has much worse luck. Due to Dillon’s wild card levels of good luck, he may prove me wrong though.

Shane van Gisbergen aka SVG #88 Trackhouse Racing

Let me answer with a question. Are there any road course races in the 2026 NASCAR schedule? Yes, there are? Okay, yeah, SVG will be back in the playoffs next year. While there are only 5 road course races next year compared to this year’s 6, that’s still 4 regular season chances for SVG to win just one race to qualify for the 2026 playoffs.

I suppose it is possible that somehow Shane van Gisbergen doesn’t win a regular season road course race in 2026. Just like it is possible the world could flip over on its side and start rolling around the sun like one of the more humorously named outer planets. All jokes aside, as long as win-and-you’re-in is a thing with the NASCAR Playoffs and road courses are scheduled, SVG is going to be in the NASCAR Playoffs for the time being. He won a road course that the other drivers had way more experience on by like 12 seconds in a car designed for parity. SVG will be in the 2026 NASCAR Playoffs.

Hopefully, he continues to improve on ovals and makes it a bit further next season. This will help silence some of his haters, but I’m just as certain that the great NASCAR Playoff debate will rage on.