This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Bristol Night Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Bristol Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-4 drivers finished where they were projected (Joey Logano 5th, Shane Van Gisbergen 25th, Justin Haley 28th & Ty Dillon 34th)
-9 of the 36 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (28 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 53 of 1,067, 4.97%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 418 of 1,067, 39.18%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 455 of 1,067, 42.64%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 28, 17.86%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 124 of 280, 44.29%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Shane Van Gisbergen
For the 2nd race in a row Ryan Blaney is your projected winner, we’ll see if he can match the expectations this week at Bristol. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 10th -8 |
| 3. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 7th -4 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 31st -27 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 34th -29 |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 32nd -26 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +5 |
| 8. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 36th -28 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 24 | William Byron | 12th -2 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 19th -8 |
| 12. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 21st -9 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 38th -25 |
| 14. | 7 | Justin Haley | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 30th -15 |
| 16. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 17th -1 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +9 |
| 18. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 28th -9 |
| 20. | 21 | Josh Berry | 39th -19 |
| 21. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 9th +12 |
| 22. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 14th +8 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22nd +1 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 18th +6 |
| 25. | 38 | Zane Smith | 3rd +22 |
| 26. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 23rd +3 |
| 27. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 11th +16 |
| 28. | 22 | Joey Logano | 5th +23 |
| 29. | 33 | Austin Hill | 25th +4 |
| 30. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 16th +14 |
| 31. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 37th -6 |
| 32. | 41 | Cole Custer | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 26th +7 |
| 34. | 43 | Erik Jones | 20th +14 |
| 35. | 67 | Corey Heim | 6th +29 |
| 36. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 35th +1 |
| 37. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 24th +13 |
| 38. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 27th +11 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 29th +10 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.