This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Gateway Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Gateway Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 21st
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 2nd, Bubba Wallace 6th & Cody Ware 37th)
-14 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the 38 drivers finished either exactly 10 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected or 20 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (27 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 49 of 1,031, 4.75%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 400 of 1,031, 38.80%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 441 of 1,031, 42.77%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 27, 18.52%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 118 of 270, 43.70%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Bubba Wallace
Last year at Gateway Ryan Blaney was on his way to victory until his fuel tank said no. This year, according to the projection below, he’ll hold on for the win. Photo by Sean Gardner –Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 12th -10 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th -3 |
| 5. | 22 | Joey Logano | 5th +0 |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | 11th -5 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +4 |
| 8. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 22nd -14 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 16th -7 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th +1 |
| 11. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 10th +1 |
| 12. | 38 | Zane Smith | 33rd -21 |
| 13. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 19th -6 |
| 14. | 1 | Ross Chastin | 24th -10 |
| 15. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +13 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 26th -10 |
| 17. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 18th -1 |
| 18. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 14th +4 |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 17th +2 |
| 20. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 8th +12 |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Alllmendinger | 23rd -2 |
| 22. | 21 | Josh Berry | 36th -14 |
| 23. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 35th -12 |
| 24. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 30th -6 |
| 25. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 6th +20 |
| 27. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 13th +14 |
| 28. | 7 | Justin Haley | 28th +0 |
| 29. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 15th +14 |
| 30. | 41 | Cole Custer | 27th +3 |
| 31. | 43 | Erik Jones | 21st +10 |
| 32. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 31st +1 |
| 33. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 32nd +1 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 34th +0 |
| 35. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th +15 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 29th +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.