This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Fall Kansas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Kansas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Joey Logano
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-9 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (30 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 53 of 1,142, 4.64%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 449 of 1,142, 39.32%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 483 of 1,142, 42.29%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 30, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 136 of 300, 45.33%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Ryan Blaney
Kyle Larson absolutely dominated the Spring Kansas race en route to his win. The projection below says that Larson will sweep the Kansas Cup races in 2025. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 6th -5 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd -1 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +1 |
| 4. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 15th -11 |
| 5. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -4 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 1st +5 |
| 7. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +4 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 7th +2 |
| 10. | 43 | Erik Jones | 16th -6 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 5th +6 |
| 12. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 28th -16 |
| 13. | 38 | Zane Smith | 31st -18 |
| 14. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 36th -22 |
| 15. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 23rd -8 |
| 16. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 30th -14 |
| 17. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 26th -9 |
| 18. | 21 | Josh Berry | 33rd -15 |
| 19. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 29th -10 |
| 20. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 25th -5 |
| 21. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 32nd -11 |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th -5 |
| 23. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 12th +11 |
| 24. | 22 | Joey Logano | 21st +3 |
| 25. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 24th +1 |
| 26. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 19th +7 |
| 27. | 7 | Justin Haley | 18th +9 |
| 28. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 8th +20 |
| 29. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 17th +12 |
| 30. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 14th +16 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 10th +22 |
| 33. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 13th +20 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 20th +14 |
| 35. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 37th -1 |
| 37. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 34th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.