This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 New Hampshire Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen New Hampshire Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 9th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-5 of the 39 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (29 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 53 of 1,106, 4.79%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 430 of 1,106, 38.88%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 472 of 1,106, 42.68%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 29, 17.24%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 129 of 290, 44.48%
Notable results this week
Winner: Joey Logano
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Austin Cindric
Yesterday Joey Logano won the Pole for the race today. This along with his stats and practice speed say that he ends up with the race victory today. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 22 | Joey Logano | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 7th -5 |
| 3. | 21 | Josh Berry | 2nd +1 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 12th -8 |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +4 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 21st -15 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd +4 |
| 8. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +3 |
| 9. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 6th +3 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -8 |
| 11. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 35th -24 |
| 12. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 26th -13 |
| 14. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 10th +4 |
| 15. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 14th +1 |
| 16. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 23rd -7 |
| 17. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 9th +8 |
| 18. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 11th +7 |
| 19. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20th -1 |
| 20. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 15th +5 |
| 21. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 32nd -11 |
| 22. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 36th -14 |
| 23. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 34th -11 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 22nd +2 |
| 25. | 7 | Justin Haley | 33rd -8 |
| 26. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 30th -4 |
| 27. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 17th +10 |
| 28. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 13th +15 |
| 29. | 38 | Zane Smith | 27th +2 |
| 30. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 43 | Erik Jones | 28th +3 |
| 32. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 19th +13 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 16th +17 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 29th +5 |
| 35. | 41 | Cole Custer | 24th +11 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +5 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.