So far the Round of 8 has been JGR domination as they’ve won the first 2 races and clinched 2 of the 4 spots in the Championship 4. Now we find out who the other 2 spots will go to at Martinsville, with another JGR car in good position can JGR end up with 3 cars in the Owners and Drivers Championship 4? Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Kyle Larson comes into Martinsville 36 points above the cutline, but with him being in 4th place he is definitely not safe to make the Championship 4. Photo by David Jensen — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 24th
      • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas
2) Chase Briscoe
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 4th
      • Clinched based on win at Talladega
3) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 20 points (17th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 0+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • Be within 36 points of William Byron
        • Be within 38 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 47 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 56 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts + Fastest Lap)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Byron/Logano/Blaney wins
      • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if Elliott wins
4) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 26th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 2+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • Be within 35 points of William Byron
        • Be within 37 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 46 points of Ryan Blaney
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Byron/Logano/Blaney wins
      • -OR-
      • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if Elliott wins
Cutline
5) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 25th, 36th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 38+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 37+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • Be within 1 point of Joey Logano
        • Be within 10 points of Ryan Blaney
        • Be within 25 points of Chase Elliott
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
6) Joey Logano
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 16th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 40+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 39+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 3+ points more than William Byron
        • Be within 8 points of Ryan Blaney
        • Be within 23 points of Chase Elliott
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
7) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 23rd, 38th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 49+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 48+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 12+ points more than William Byron
        • 10+ points more than Joey Logano
        • Be within 14 points of Chase Elliott
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Chase Elliott
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 18th, 40th
      • Must Win to clinch

After a disastrous Talladega last week the 9 team finds themself (and their driver too) in a must win situation at Martinsville. Photo by David Jensen — Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 24th
      • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas
2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 4th
      • Clinched based on win at Talladega
3) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 26th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 1+ point more than the No.20
        • Be within 35 points of the No.24
        • Be within 37 points of the No.22
        • Be within 46 points of the No.12
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.24/No.22/No.12 wins
      • -OR-
      • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if the No.9 wins
4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 1+ point more than the No.5
        • Be within 35 points of the No.24
        • Be within 37 points of the No.22
        • Be within 46 points of the No.12
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.24/No.22/No.12 wins
      • -OR-
      • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if the No.9 wins
Cutline
5) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 25th, 36th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 37+ points more than the No.5
        • 37+ points more than the No.20
        • Be within 1 point of the No.22
        • Be within 10 points of the No.12
        • Be within 25 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
6) Team Penske No.22
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 16th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 39+ points more than the No.5
        • 39+ points more than the No.20
        • 3+ points more than the No.24
        • Be within 8 points of the No.12
        • Be within 23 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
7) Team Penske No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 23rd, 38th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 48+ points more than the No.5
        • 48+ points more than the No.20
        • 12+ points more than the No.24
        • 10+ points more than the No.22
        • Be within 14 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 18th, 40th
      • Must Win to clinch