Last week at Kansas we went from seeing a Toyota clinch their spot in the Round of 8 for most the race to a Chevy, Chase Elliott, clinching his spot to the Round of 8 instead. Now, we head to the unpredictable Charlotte Roval for the last chance to clinch your spot in the Round of 8. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Joey Logano sits above the cutline entering the Roval race this weekend, but he’s anything but comfortable sitting right above the cutline. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Ryan Blaney
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 24th
      • Clinched based on win at New Hampshire
2) Chase Elliott
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 5th
      • Clinched based on win at Kansas
3) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 7th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 3 points (34th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 5 points of Denny Hamlin
        • Be within 9 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 13 points of William Byron
        • Be within 32 points of Chase Briscoe
        • Be within 40 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 53 points of Ross Chastain
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Chastain wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if Wallace/Reddick/Cindric wins
4) Denny Hamlin
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 12th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 9 points (28th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • 7+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • Be within 3 points of Christopher Bell
        • Be within 7 points of William Byron
        • Be within 26 points of Chase Briscoe
        • Be within 34 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 47 points of Ross Chastain
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 22 points (15th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Chastain wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if Wallace/Reddick/Cindric wins
5) Christopher Bell
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 6th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 13 points (24th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • 11+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 5+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • Be within 3 points of William Byron
        • Be within 22 points of Chase Briscoe
        • Be within 30 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 43 points of Ross Chastain
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 26 points (11th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Chastain wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if Wallace/Reddick/Cindric wins
6) William Byron
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 9th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 15+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 9+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 5+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • Be within 18 points of Chase Briscoe
        • Be within 26 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 39 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 52 points of Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 55 points of Tyler Reddick (AKA start the race)
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Chastain/Wallace/Reddick wins
      • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if Cindric wins
7) Chase Briscoe
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 10th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 33+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 28+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 24+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 20+ points more than William Byron
        • Be within 7 points of Joey Logano
        • Be within 20 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 33 points of Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 36 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 55 points of Austin Cindric (AKA start the race)
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Joey Logano
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 41+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 36+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 32+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 28+ points more than William Byron
        • 9+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • Be within 12 points of Ross Chastain
        • Be within 25 points of Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 28 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 47 points of Austin Cindric
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline
9) Ross Chastain
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 9th, 11th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than Kyle Larson
        • 49+ points more than Denny Hamlin
        • 45+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 41+ points more than William Byron
        • 22+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 14+ points more than Joey Logano
        • Be within 12 points of Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 15 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 34 points of Austin Cindric
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
10) Bubba Wallace
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 5th, 26th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than William Byron
        • 35+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 27+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 14+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • Be within 2 points of Tyler Reddick
        • Be within 21 points of Austin Cindric
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
11) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 38+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 30+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 17+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 4+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • Be within 18 points of Austin Cindric
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
12) Austin Cindric
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 17th, 30th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
        • 49+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 36+ points more than Ross Chastain
        • 23+ points more than Bubba Wallace
        • 20+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win to clinch

The No.2 team has rough Round of 12 and without any stage points in Stage 1 is in a must win situation. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Team Penske No.12
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 24th
      • Clinched based on win at New Hampshire
2) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 5th
      • Clinched based on win at Kansas
3) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 7th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 3 points (34th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 4 points of the No.11
        • Be within 10 points of the No.20
        • Be within 13 points of the No.24
        • Be within 32 points of the No.19
        • Be within 40 points of the No.22
        • Be within 53 points of the No.1
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.1 wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if the No.23/No.45/No.2 wins
4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 12th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
        • 6+ points more than the No.5
        • Be within 5 points of the No.20
        • Be within 8 points of the No.24
        • Be within 27 points of the No.19
        • Be within 35 points of the No.22
        • Be within 48 points of the No.1
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.1 wins
      • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if the No.23/No.45/No.2 wins
5) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 6th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
        • 12+ points more than the No.5
        • 7+ points more than the No.11
        • Be within 2 points of the No.24
        • Be within 21 points of the No.19
        • Be within 29 points of the No.22
        • Be within 42 points of the No.1
        • Be within 55 points of the No.23 (AKA start the race
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.1/No.23 wins
      • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if the No.45/No.2 wins
6) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 9th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
        • 15+ points more than the No.5
        • 10+ points more than the No.11
        • 4+ points more than the No.20
        • Be within 18 points of the No.19
        • Be within 26 points of the No.22
        • Be within 39 points of the No.1
        • Be within 52 points of the No.23
        • Be within 55 points of the No.45 (AKA start the race)
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.1/No.23/No.45 wins
      • Needs 4 of the scenarios above if the No.2 wins
7) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 10th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 36 points (2nd place finish + 1 Stage Pt)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 33+ points more than the No.5
        • 29+ points more than the No.11
        • 23+ points more than the No.20
        • 20+ points more than the No.24
        • Be within 7 points of the No.22
        • Be within 20 points of the No.1
        • Be within 33 points of the No.23
        • Be within 36 points of the No.45
        • Be within 55 points of the No.2 (AKA start the race)
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Team Penske No.22
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 21st
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 41+ points more than the No.5
        • 37+ points more than the No.11
        • 31+ points more than the No.20
        • 28+ points more than the No.24
        • 9+ points more than the No.19
        • Be within 12 points of the No.1
        • Be within 25 points of the No.23
        • Be within 28 points of the No.45
        • Be within 47 points of the No.2
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline
9) Trackhouse Racing No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 9th, 11th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 55+ points more than the No.5
        • 50+ points more than the No.11
        • 44+ points more than the No.20
        • 41+ points more than the No.24
        • 22+ points more than the No.19
        • 14+ points more than the No.22
        • Be within 12 points of the No.23
        • Be within 15 points of the No.45
        • Be within 34 points of the No.2
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
10) 23XI Racing No.23
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 5th, 26th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 54+ points more than the No.24
        • 35+ points more than the No.19
        • 27+ points more than the No.19
        • 14+ points more than the No.1
        • Be within 2 points of the No.45
        • Be within 21 points of the No.2
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
11) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 21st
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 38+ points more than the No.19
        • 30+ points more than the No.22
        • 17+ points more than the No.1
        • 4+ points more than the No.23
        • Be within 18 points of the No.2
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
12) Team Penske No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 17th, 30th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
        • 49+ points more than the No.22
        • 36+ points more than the No.1
        • 23+ points more than the No.23
        • 20+ points more than the No.45
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Must Win to clinch