In Las Vegas last week we got to see dynamic Denny Hamlin charge hard late to clinch himself, and his team, a spot in the Championship 4 at Phoenix. Now, we head to Talladega where anything can and probably will happen as Playoff drivers try to set themselves up well for Martinsville. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

With his win last week at Las Vegas Denny Hamlin picked up his 6th win of 2025, his 60th career win, and clinch his spot in the Championship 4. Photo by Will Lester — LVMS — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Denny Hamlin
      • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas
2) Kyle Larson
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 42+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 37+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 22+ points more than William Byron
        • 14+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 13+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 6+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
3) Christopher Bell
      • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 52+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 37+ points more than William Byron
        • 29+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 28+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 21+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
4) Chase Briscoe
        • Only way to clinch is to win
Cutline
5) William Byron
      • Only way to clinch is to win
6) Chase Elliott
      • Only way to clinch is to win
7) Joey Logano
      • Only way to clinch is to win
8) Ryan Blaney
      • Only way to clinch is to win

Thanks to a miscommunication between the 24 and 10 team last week, the No.24 team finds themselves below the Owners cutline heading to Talladega. Photo by Marc Sanchez — LVMS — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11
      • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas
2) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
        • 41+ points more than Christopher Bell
        • 37+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 22+ points more than William Byron
        • 14+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 13+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 6+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above
3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
      • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
        • 53+ points more than Chase Briscoe
        • 38+ points more than William Byron
        • 30+ points more than Chase Elliott
        • 29+ points more than Joey Logano
        • 22+ points more than Ryan Blaney
      • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch
4) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
        • Only way to clinch is to win
Cutline
5) Hendrick Motorsports No.24
      • Only way to clinch is to win
6) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
      • Only way to clinch is to win
7) Team Penske No.22
      • Only way to clinch is to win
8) Team Penske No.12
      • Only way to clinch is to win