Through the first 2 races of the Trucks Round of 8 it’s been all TRICON Garage, but only one of the wins was by a Playoff driver/owner. Now, it all comes down to the final race, Martinsville, and with drivers very close in points it should be a fun battle. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Friday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Coming into Martinsville Kaden Honeycutt is above the cutline, but he’s anything but a lock to make the Championship 4. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Corey Heim
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 2nd
      • Clinched based on win at the Roval
2) Rajah Caruth
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 9th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 5 points of Tyler Ankrum
        • Be within 8 points of Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 13 points of Ty Majeski
        • Be within 14 points of Layne Riggs
        • Be within 40 points of Daniel Hemric
        • Be within 48 points of Grant Enfinger
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
3) Tyler Ankrum
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 9th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 7+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • Be within 2 points of Kaden Honeycutt
        • Be within 7 points of Ty Majeski
        • Be within 8 points of Layne Riggs
        • Be within 34 points of Daniel Hemric
        • Be within 42 points of Grant Enfinger
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 54 points (2nd place finish + 19 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
4) Kaden Honeycutt
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 10th, 14th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 52 points (2nd place finish + 17 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 10+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • 4+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • Be within 4 points of Ty Majeski
        • Be within 5 points of Layne Riggs
        • Be within 31 points of Daniel Hemric
        • Be within 39 points of Grant Enfinger
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline

5) Ty Majeski
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 15+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • 9+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 6+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • 0+ points more than Layne Riggs
        • Be within 26 points of Daniel Hemric
        • Be within 34 points of Grant Enfinger
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
6) Layne Riggs
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 5th, 21st
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 16+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • 10+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 7+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • 2+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • Be within 25 points of Daniel Hemric
        • Be within 33 points of Grant Enfinger
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
7) Daniel Hemric
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 34th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 42+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • 36+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 33+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • 28+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 27+ points more than Layne Riggs
        • Be within 7 points of Grant Enfinger
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Grant Enfinger
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 7th, 36th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 50+ points more than Rajah Caruth
        • 44+ points more than Tyler Ankrum
        • 40+ points more than Kaden Honeycutt
        • 36+ points more than Ty Majeski
        • 35+ points more than Layne Riggs
        • 9+ points more than Daniel Hemric
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

The No.98 team is the first team below the cutline in the Owners Championship, but they have plenty of doable scenarios to get them above it after this weekend. Photo by David J. Griffin — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) TRICON Garage No.11
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 2nd
      • Clinched based on win at the Roval
2) Spire Motorsports No.71
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 4th, 9th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 42 points (2nd place finish + 7 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 6 points of the No.52
        • Be within 7 points of the No.18
        • Be within 14 points of the No.98
        • Be within 14 points of the No.34
        • Be within 41 points of the No.19
        • Be within 49 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
3) Halmar Friesen Racing No.52
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 10th, 14th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 8+ points more than the No.71
        • 0+ points more than the No.18
        • Be within 7 points of the No.98
        • Be within 7 points of the No.34
        • Be within 34 points of the No.19
        • Be within 42 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 56 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts + Fastest Lap)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
4) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.18
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 9th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 50 points (2nd place finish + 15 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 9+ points more than the No.71
        • 2+ points more than the No.52
        • Be within 6 points of the No.98
        • Be within 6 points of the No.34
        • Be within 33 points of the No.19
        • Be within 41 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline

5) ThorSport Racing No.98
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 8th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 16+ points more than the No.71
        • 9+ points more than the No.52
        • 8+ points more than the No.18
        • 1+ point more than the No.34
        • Be within 26 points of the No.19
        • Be within 34 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
6) Front Row Motorsports No.34
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 5th, 21st
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 16+ points more than the No.71
        • 9+ points more than the No.52
        • 8+ points more than the No.18
        • 1+ point more than the No.98
        • Be within 26 points of the No.19
        • Be within 34 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
7) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 34th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 43+ points more than the No.71
        • 36+ points more than the No.52
        • 35+ points more than the No.18
        • 28+ points more than the No.98
        • 28+ points more than the No.34
        • Be within 7 points of the No.9
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) CR7 Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 7th, 36th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than the No.71
        • 43+ points more than the No.52
        • 43+ points more than the No.18
        • 36+ points more than the No.98
        • 36+ points more than the No.34
        • 9+ points more than the No.19
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above