Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Martinsville

Two races are down in the Xfinity Series Round of 8 and both races have seen a car in the Owners points, but not Driver points, win thus clinching their spot in the Owners Championship 4. However, a few drivers have clinched their spot based on points, but there are still a few spots to be decided this weekend at Martinsville. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Connor Zilisch
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 23rd

• • • Clinched based on points

2) Justin Allgaier
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 3rd

• • • Clinched based on points

3) Jesse Love
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 10th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 28 points of Carson Kvapil
      • Be within 39 points of Sammy Smith
      • Be within 48 points of Brandon Jones
      • Be within 50 points of Sam Mayer
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 28 points (9th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 3* of the scenarios above if Smith/Jones/Mayer wins
    • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if Creed wins

4) Carson Kvapil
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 15th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 29+ points more than Jesse Love
      • Be within 10 points of Sammy Smith
      • Be within 19 points of Brandon Jones
      • Be within 21 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 40 points of Sheldon Creed
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

5) Sammy Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 9th, 20th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 41+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 12+ points more than Carson Kvapil
      • Be within 8 points of Brandon Jones
      • Be within 10 points of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 29 points of Sheldon Creed
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

6) Brandon Jones
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 13th, 26th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 21+ points more than Carson Kvapil
      • 10+ points more than Sammy Smith
      • Be within 1 point of Sam Mayer
      • Be within 20 points of Sheldon Creed
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

7) Sam Mayer
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 9th, 38th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 52+ points more than Jesse Love
      • 23+ points more than Carson Kvapil
      • 12+ points more than Sammy Smith
      • 3+ points more than Brandon Jones
      • Be within 18 points of Sheldon Creed
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

8) Sheldon Creed
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 34th

• • • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 42+ points more than Carson Kvapil
      • 31+ points more than Sammy Smith
      • 21+ points more than Brandon Jones
      • 20+ points more than Sam Mayer
    • Driver below cut DOES win: Must Win to Clinch

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 24th

• • • Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) Richard Childress Racing No.21
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 1st, 10th

• • • Clinched based on win at Talladega

3) JR Motorsports No.88
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 2nd, 23rd

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 9 points (28th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 11 points of the No.7
      • Be within 47 points of the No.2
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 45 points (2nd place finish + 10 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.2 wins
    • Needs all 2 of the scenarios above if the No.20/No.41/No.00 wins

4) JR Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 3rd, 3rd

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • 13+ points more than the No.88
      • Be within 35 points of the No.2
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 1* of the scenarios above if the No.2 wins
    • Needs all 2 of the scenarios above if the No.20/No.41/No.00 wins

5) Richard Childress Racing No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 6th, 10th

• • • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 3* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.88
      • 37+ points more than the No.7
      • Be within 48 points of the No.20
      • Be within 50 points of the No.41
    • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 3* of the scenarios above if the No.20/No.41 wins
    • Needs all 4 of the scenarios above if the No.00 wins

6) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 13th, 26th

• • • Must Win to clinch

7) Haas Factory Racing No.41
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 9th, 38th

• • • Must Win to clinch

8) Haas Factory Racing No.00
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 8: 11th, 34th

• • • Must Win to clinch