The first two weeks of the Xfinity Playoffs have seen Joe Gibbs Racing clinch two owners spots in the Round of 8, and with Brandon Jones winning last week at Kansas he also clinched his spot in the Drivers Round of 8. Now we head to the final race in the Round of 12, and the most unpredictable. The Charlotte Roval. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 8. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Thanks to his intentional spin of Aric Almirola at Indy Austin Hill finds himself below the cutline entering the Roval. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Brandon Jones
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 11th
      • Clinched based on win at Kansas
2) Connor Zilisch
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 5th
      • Clinched based on points
3) Justin Allgaier
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 13th
      • Clinched based on points
4) Sam Mayer
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 16th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 26 points of Taylor Gray
        • Be within 30 points of Sheldon Creed
        • Be within 33 points of Carson Kvapil
        • Be within 37 points of Jesse Love
        • Be within 42 points of Nick Sanchez
        • Be within 44 points of Austin Hill
        • Be within 45 points of Harrison Burton
        • Be within 51 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
5) Taylor Gray
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 14th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 28+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • Be within 3 points of Sheldon Creed
        • Be within 6 points of Carson Kvapil
        • Be within 10 points of Jesse Love
        • Be within 15 points of Nick Sanchez
        • Be within 17 points of Austin Hill
        • Be within 18 points of Harrison Burton
        • Be within 24 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 11 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
6) Sheldon Creed
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 5th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 31+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 4+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • Be within 2 points of Carson Kvapil
        • Be within 7 points of Jesse Love
        • Be within 12 points of Nick Sanchez
        • Be within 13 points of Austin Hill
        • Be within 15 points of Harrison Burton
        • Be within 20 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 49 points (2nd place finish + 14 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
7) Carson Kvapil
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 15th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 35+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 8+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • 4+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • Be within 3 points of Jesse Love
        • Be within 8 points of Nick Sanchez
        • Be within 10 points of Austin Hill
        • Be within 11 points of Harrison Burton
        • Be within 17 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Jesse Love
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 25th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 52 points (2nd place finish + 17 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 39+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 12+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • 8+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • 5+ points more than Carson Kvapil
        • Be within 4 points of Nick Sanchez
        • Be within 6 points of Austin Hill
        • Be within 7 points of Harrison Burton
        • Be within 13 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline
9) Nick Sanchez
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 13th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 44+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 17+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • 13+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • 10+ points more than Carson Kvapil
        • 6+ points more than Jesse Love
        • Be within 1 point of Austin Hill
        • Be within 2 points of Harrison Burton
        • Be within 8 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
10) Austin Hill
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 19th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 46+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 19+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • 15+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • 12+ points more than Carson Kvapil
        • 8+ points more than Jesse Love
        • 3+ points more than Nick Sanchez
        • 0+ points more than Harrison Burton
        • Be within 6 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
11) Harrison Burton
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 20th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 47+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 20+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • 16+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • 13+ points more than Carson Kvapil
        • 9+ points more than Jesse Love
        • 4+ points more than Nick Sanchez
        • 2+ points more than Austin Hill
        • Be within 5 points of Sammy Smith
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
12) Sammy Smith
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 37th
      • Driver below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 53+ points more than Sam Mayer
        • 25+ points more than Taylor Gray
        • 22+ points more than Sheldon Creed
        • 19+ points more than Carson Kvapil
        • 15+ points more than Jesse Love
        • 10+ points more than Nick Sanchez
        • 8+ points more than Austin Hill
        • 7+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • Driver below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above

As you see above Carson Kvapil finds himself above the Driver Cutline, but the 1 team as a whole isn’t as fortunate as they are below the Owners cutline. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 37th
      • Clinched based on win at Bristol
2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 1st, 11th
      • Clinched based on win at Kansas
3) JR Motorsports No.88
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 5th
      • Clinched based on points
4) JR Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 13th
      • Clinched based on points
5) Haas Factory Team No.41
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 16th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 23 points (14th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • Be within 17 points of the No.21
        • Be within 27 points of the No.54
        • Be within 31 points of the No.00
        • Be within 33 points of the No.1
        • Be within 37 points of the No.2
        • Be within 42 points of the No.48
        • Be within 49 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 25 points (12th place finish)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
6) Richard Childress Racing No.21
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 3rd, 19th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 19+ points more than the No.41
        • Be within 9 points of the No.54
        • Be within 13 points of the No.00
        • Be within 15 points of the No.1
        • Be within 19 points of the No.2
        • Be within 24 points of the No.48
        • Be within 31 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
7) Joe Gibbs Racing No.54
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 6th, 14th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 29+ points more than the No.41
        • 11+ points more than then No.21
        • Be within 3 points of the No.00
        • Be within 5 points of the No.1
        • Be within 9 points of the No.2
        • Be within 14 points of the No.48
        • Be within 21 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the scenarios above
8) Haas Factory Team No.00
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 2nd, 5th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 55 points (2nd place finish + 20 Stage Pts)
      • -OR-
      • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 32+ points more than the No.41
        • 15+ points more than then No.21
        • 4+ points more than the No.54
        • Be within 1 point of the No.1
        • Be within 6 points of the No.2
        • Be within 11 points of the No.48
        • Be within 17 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
Cutline
9) JR Motorsports No.1
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 15th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 35+ points more than the No.41
        • 17+ points more than then No.21
        • 7+ points more than the No.54
        • 3+ points more than the No.00
        • Be within 3 points of the No.2
        • Be within 8 points of the No.48
        • Be within 15 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
10) Richard Childress Racing No.2
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 7th, 25th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 39+ points more than the No.41
        • 21+ points more than then No.21
        • 11+ points more than the No.54
        • 7+ points more than the No.00
        • 5+ points more than the No.1
        • Be within 4 points of the No.48
        • Be within 11 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
11) Big Machine Racing No.48
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 8th, 13th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 44+ points more than the No.41
        • 26+ points more than then No.21
        • 16+ points more than the No.54
        • 12+ points more than the No.00
        • 10+ points more than the No.1
        • 6+ points more than the No.2
        • Be within 6 points of the No.8
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above
12) Big Machine Racing No.48
Tiebreaker/Finishes in Round of 12: 4th, 37th
      • Owner below cut does NOT win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
        • 51+ points more than the No.41
        • 33+ points more than then No.21
        • 22+ points more than the No.54
        • 19+ points more than the No.00
        • 17+ points more than the No.1
        • 13+ points more than the No.2
        • 8+ points more than the No.48
      • Owner below cut DOES win: Needs 4* of the scenarios above