Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series - Talladega

Last week at Las Vegas we saw Aric Almirola win and get the 19 team into the Owners Championship 4, but no one clinch a spot on the Drivers side. Now, we head to Talladega to see if anyone can get through the chaos and clinch their spot. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Championship 4. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Connor Zilisch comes into Talladega with so many points that if he can get 38 points, then he will clinch a Championship 4 spot on points (if no other Playoff driver wins). Photo by Logan Riely — Getty Images

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Connor Zilisch

- - Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
  - -OR-
  - Needs 5 of the following scenarios
    - 19+ points more than Justin Allgaier
    - Be within 5 points of Jesse Love
    - Be within 17 points of Sam Mayer
    - Be within 25 points of Brandon Jones
    - Be within 38 points of Sheldon Creed
    - Be within 39 points of Carson Kvapil
    - Be within 41 points of Sammy Smith
  - Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 46 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
  - -OR-
  - Needs 5* of the scenarios above

2) Justin Allgaier

- - Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
    - 33+ points more than Jesse Love
    - 21+ points more than Sam Mayer
    - 13+ points more than Brandon Jones
    - 0+ points more than Sheldon Creed
    - Be within 1 point of Carson Kvapil
    - Be within 3 points of Sammy Smith
  - Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Jesse Love

- - Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
    - 45+ points more than Sam Mayer
    - 37+ points more than Brandon Jones
    - 24+ points more than Sheldon Creed
    - 23+ points more than Carson Kvapil
    - 21+ points more than Sammy Smith
  - Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

4) Sam Mayer

- - - Only way to clinch is to win

Cutline

5) Brandon Jones

- - Only way to clinch is to win

6) Sheldon Creed

- - Only way to clinch is to win

7) Carson Kvapil

- - Only way to clinch is to win

8) Sammy Smith

- - Only way to clinch is to win

Thanks to this win by Aric Almirola last week at Las Vegas the No.19 team can go for broke this weekend as they have already clinched a spot in the Owners Championship 4. Photo by Christopher Trim — LVMS –Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19

- - Clinched based on win at Las Vegas

2) JR Motorsports No.88

- - Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 48 points (2nd place finish + 13 Stage Pts)
  - -OR-
  - Needs 5 of the following scenarios
    - 14+ points more than the No.7
    - Be within 8 points of the No.21
    - Be within 10 points of the No.2
    - Be within 22 points of the No.41
    - Be within 30 points of the No.20
    - Be within 44 points of the No.00
  - Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) JR Motorsports No.7

- - Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs all 5 of the following scenarios
    - 35+ points more than the No.21
    - 33+ points more than the No.2
    - 21+ points more than the No.41
    - 13+ points more than the No.20
    - Be within 1 point of the No.00
  - Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

4) Richard Childress Racing No.21

- - - Only way to clinch is to win