Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch: Playoff Martinsville

One last chance to secure a spot in the Championship Four. Between the Cup, Xfinity, and Craftsman Truck Series, 19 drivers are still contending to grab one of the available spots for Phoenix. It all comes down to Martinsville Speedway. The Paperclip will separate the contenders from the pretenders. Who will be able to thrive under the pressure? When the lights are brightest, who will show up and show out? Who will crumble? Also, which playoff drivers will have their days spoiled by the large field of non-playoff drivers? Martinsville will likely be a spectacle this weekend of playoff drama, tempers, and heartbreak. With the last elimination races of the season, who are the Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch for Playoff Martinsville?

While the focus of the weekend (and this article) will be primarily fixated on the playoff drivers, make sure to watch the non-playoff cars in the field. There are plenty of compelling stories to see, especially from the lower funded teams. Casey Mears will be pulling double duty this weekend, making his first career Craftsman Truck Series start. There will be plenty of Halloween inspired paint schemes in the Xfinity Series race. Plenty of drivers who are entering their second-to-last race with their current teams looking to end the season on a good note. Even if the broadcasts fail to cover some of these stories, it would behoove you to pay attention to them.

Xfinity 500

Ryan Blaney

Could the Cup Series be on the verge of guaranteeing the first non-Penske champion since the Gen7 era began? Entering this weekend, both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are both 38 points or more below the cutline. If Team Penske is going to defend their 3-peat, it will certainly take one of them winning. Joey Logano’s best chance at winning in the Round of 8 came and went last weekend. This weekend though, Ryan Blaney looks poised to punch his ticket to the Championship Four.

Ryan Blaney has always been a strong driver at Martinsville, but his recent history has demonstrated his “clutch gene”. Blaney has won the past 2 Martinsville elimination races, both times clinching his spot in the Championship Four. Last year resembles the situation that Blaney currently finds himself. Sitting significantly below the cutline, Blaney’s only true hope is to win this weekend. The same circumstance found the 12 team last year. Under the final green flag run, Blaney’s fresh tires took him to the front to seal the deal. Can Ryan Blaney pull it off again? It would not be wise to bet against him. However, a bad omen for this weekend is that the spring race at Martinsville saw Blaney’s first finish outside the Top-10 in the Gen7 era.

Chase Elliott

The man who finished second to Ryan Blaney last season needs to improve that one position if he wants to advance. Chase Elliott’s Round of 8 has been a rough one for the former champion. Finishing 18th at Las Vegas certainly underdelivered to kick off this round but a last place finish at Talladega was the death nail for pointing his way through. Now, it is a must win situation for the 9 team. The issue is that this team has not shown enough consistent winning speed to have confidence in them. Their 2 wins were Atlanta and a drive of lifetime at Kansas, neither which were races where Elliott dominated.

However, Martinsville has been one of Chase Elliott’s better tracks in the Gen7 era. Especially in his recent history at the Paperclip, Elliott has run near the front in this car. In his past 3 races, Elliott has a Top-5 in each of them. Combined, the 9 car has been upfront for 235 laps in those races. If there was a track for Elliott fans to have faith that he could win, Martinsville would be at the top of the list. Outside of Ryan Blaney playing spoiler, Chase Elliott could be the favorite heading into this weekend.

IAA and Ritchie Bros 250

Justin Allgaier

Despite being locked into the Championship Four for the drivers playoff, Justin Allgaier still have to compete to keep his 7 team in the owners championship. With Aric Almirola and Austin Hill winning the first two races of the Round of 8, the 19 and 21 teams are locked into the owners Championship Four. While the 7 and 88 are sitting pretty above the cutline, a team below the cutline winning would make the final spot be decided between the JRM teams. Heading into Martinsville, the 7 team trails the 88 by 12 points. It is not an insurmountable point gap, but one that will be tough with how well Connor Zilisch drives.

Best case scenario for JR Motorsports would be for either Justin Allgaier or Connor Zilisch to pick up the win. That way, both teams will be the Championship Four. Between the two drivers, the safer bet would be Justin Allgaier. Since the Xfinity Series has returned to Martinsville, Allgaier has been one of the best on that track. Outside another messy finish in the spring of 2022, Allgaier’s worst finish at the track is 9th in his second start. In 5 of his past 6 starts, the 7 team has finished inside the Top-5, including his 2023 elimination race win. There will be two playoff cutline dramas to follow on Saturday. Justin Allgaier will be at the center of the owners one.

Taylor Gray

The lone non-playoff driver featured this week, Saturday could mark redemption for Taylor Gray. Martinsville has proven to be a strong track for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. Between Xfinity and Trucks, Gray knows how to pilot a vehicle to the front of the field late in the race. What Gray has not mastered is the ability to not be run over by the desperate drivers behind him. Sammy Smith pulled off his best Austin Dillon impression in the spring to spoil a career day for Gray. After leading 87 laps and into the final two turns, Smith’s contact sent Gray spinning and put him in 29th to end the day.

Looking ahead to Saturday, Taylor Gray should be a prime candidate to play spoiler. That would be a significant upset to pull as well, since the Xfinity cutline is not that close. While Sammy Smith trails Carson Kvapil by 11 points, the other three below the cutline are 20 or more points behind. Keeping them out of victory lane would reduce the drama down to the JR Motorsports drivers. However, the entertainment of watching a driver go for his career win at a track where he should have one already is worth it. If the CW allows, keep an eye on Taylor Gray as he goes for the win he should have gained in the spring.

Slim Jim 200

Ty Majeski

If Ty Majeski has any shot of going back-to-back, he needs a crucial performance at Martinsville on Friday night. Entering the weekend 5 points below the cutline, Friday does not mark a must win situation for Majeski. With Martinsville playing to Majeski’s strengths as a short track ace, the 98 should be upfront for the majority of the Slim Jim 200. Scoring Top-5 points in both stages will set him up nicely for the remainder of the race. Even if there is a new playoff winner, Majeski only trails Tyler Ankrum by 8 points. Qualifying will be crucial for Majeski.

What Ty Majeski and 98 team need to avoid this weekend is a costly mistake. Despite strong performances, Majeski has gone two Martinsville races without a Top-10. Although he finished all four stages inside the Top-3, a pit road penalty or error cost Majeski track position. When the laps are limited, it is difficult to drive through the field. It has to be a clean race from the ThorSport crew. Is that something they can pull off? It seems that the short tracks is where the issues arise the most for the 98 team. If they can keep it clean for the 200 laps on Friday, then Majeski should be able to point (or win) his way to Phoenix.

Daniel Hemric

From a driver with a chance to point his way in to one who has to win, Daniel Hemric’s DNF at Talladega solidly shoves him below the cutline. Entering Friday night, Hemric trails Kaden Honeycutt by 32 points. While mathematically still alive to point his way in, it would take a miracle for Hemric to do so. With that consideration, the 19 team will have their chips all in on going after the win. Luckily for them, they are the reigning winners at Martinsville. Picking up the win in the spring, that should be a great morale boost. Will Hemric be able to replicate what he did in the spring?

Well, that depends on how the race goes. Despite winning, the spring race certainly did not feature much of Daniel Hemric at the front. He led a total of 4 laps and failed to finish either stage in the Top-3. The late restart fracas is what benefitted Hemric with the win. The team cannot depend on that occurring again to be their strategy for this weekend. With that said, the 19 truck certainly was not slow in the spring. It was a Top-5 worthy truck all race long. However, Hemric will need to match the speed that Corey Heim, Ty Majeski, and Kaden Honeycutt brought to have a chance.

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