Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch: ROVAL

No matter how much you may want to see it gone, the ROVAL at the Charlotte Motor Speedway will continue to be the road course of the playoffs. For the first time though, all three NASCAR national series will compete on the ROVAL. The Craftsman Truck Series will make their ROVAL debut on Friday as they kick off their Round of 8. What a bizarre Round of 8 for the Truck Series: the ROVAL, Talladega, and then Martinsville. Anyway, the ROVAL will serve as the elimination race for both the Cup and Xfinity Series. Both series will see their playoff fields be whittled down from 12 to 8. As per usually ROVAL arrangement, there are plenty of road course ringers who should get their moment to shine this weekend. Will any of them feature in this week’s Critical Path Security 6 Drivers to Watch for the ROVAL?

Looking at the playoff situation heading into this weekend, it is clear that the Xfinity and Truck Series are the two to be invested in. Cup’s cutline battle is a snoozer on paper. Ross Chastain is the first one under the cutline by 13 points behind Joey Logano. Even if Chastain or any of the three below him wins, Chase Briscoe holds a 8 point gap on Logano. Even if Logano goes for stage points while Briscoe does not, it is difficult to fathom Logano performing that much better than Briscoe. Meanwhile, there are 3 drivers in single digits below the cutline for the Xfinity. Jesse Love is the first one in, but can easily surpass Carson Kvapil (who he trails by 4 points). As per usual arrangement, the Xfinity Series is more exciting than Cup.

Bank of America ROVAL 400

Shane van Gisbergen

This week, 6 Drivers to Watch is going to focus on the two favorites for the ROVAL. Based on how this season has transpired, Shane van Gisbergen is the obvious favorite. Since COTA, SVG has won every road course race in the Cup Series. Not only winning those races, but dominating them in the process. During every lap, it seems that Shane van Gisbergen is in control even if he is not in the lead. On a road course, there is no one better at pacing his equipment from start to finish. If SVG managed to remain in the playoffs, this race is why many believed he had a shot at the Round of 8.

That said, the ROVAL is a bit different than the standard road course. Especially on restarts, the infield section of the track can spoil anyone’s day. Shane van Gisbergen should be familiar with this from last year. His last Cup start in 2024 was on the ROVAL. Every time SVG lost track position, he would get turned at the hairpin that leads to the oval Turn 1. If SVG finds himself deep in the fray this weekend, his chances of winning could be spoiled by an aggressive dive bomb in that turn. While the smart money is on another Shane van Gisbergen win, the ROVAL could throw a curveball into it.

AJ Allmendinger

During today’s modern NASCAR, there are few drivers who own a track. Especially in Cup, where the Gen7 car throws too much parity into the mix for one driver to continuously whoop the field. However, AJ Allmendinger has a claim to being the driver who owns the ROVAL. Between Cup and Xfinity, Allmendinger has won 6 of his 10 starts. Outside of a blown engine in 2021 (Cup), Allmendinger’s worst finish on the ROVAL was 7th in 2018. In 8 of 10 ROVAL starts, the road course ringer has led at least 12 laps.

While Shane van Gisbergen is the favorite, AJ Allmendinger is at the top of the list of who could upset the New Zealander. Allmendinger’s return to Cup in the Gen7 era has been a bit disappointing on the road courses. He has run consistently well at those tracks, but it has been a step below what many expected. Now with SVG in the mix, Allmendinger has certainly taken a backseat to his former Kaulig Xfinity teammate. However, the ROVAL is the place where Allmendinger could still have the edge. On paper, the battle for the win looks to be between SVG and Allmendinger. It should be something great to watch this weekend.

Blue Cross NC 250

Nick Sanchez

Sitting as the first driver below the cutline, only 5 points separate Nick Sanchez and the Round of 8. At the start of the season, a road course serving as the cutline race might have been dreaded by the 48 team. COTA and Mexico City saw finishes of 24th and 31st for the Rookie of the Year contender. Since those races though, Sanchez has been a Top-5 machine on the road courses. With every road course race since, Sanchez has improved his result by one spot, starting with a 5th place finish at Chicago. If he can maintain that level of performance this weekend, it could be a breeze to advance through to the next round.

The big question for the 48 team this weekend is the strategy. Do they give Sanchez a shot at the win/maintain track position for an easier shot at Top-5 or go for stage points? That strategy might not be determined until the race starts though. With the drivers ahead of him in points, Big Machine Racing might decide to do the opposite of what Jesse Love, Carson Kvapil, and Sheldon Creed do. If they go for points, Sanchez might choose to go for the win. Obviously, it also depends on where Sanchez is running compared to those drivers. Plus, the ROVAL is more treacherous for disaster for the playoff field. Gathering stage points early would help offset an untimely accident. This intrigue is certainly a major factor as to why Nick Sanchez is one to watch.

Sam Mayer

Barring catastrophe, Sam Mayer should safely advance to the Round of the 8. Heading into the ROVAL, Mayer sits 43 points above the cutline. As importantly, he also has a 27 point gap between him and Taylor Gray, who is the second highest in points without a win. From the outside looking in, the strategy for the weekend seems straightforward: go for the win. Sure, the 41 team could shoot to score points in Stage 1 to officially secure their spot. However, that would seem foolish. Mayer is a strong road course driver and the team should give him a chance to battle for the win.

Does Sam Mayer have a shot to conquer Connor Zilisch on a road course? Similar to the AJ Allmendinger vs Shane van Gisbergen analysis, this might be Mayer’s best shot to best Zilisch. Zilisch has dominated the road courses when Cup drivers have not entered. However, the ROVAL is a different beast. Mayer has won the past 2 races on the ROVAL, with last year’s coming during an overtime restart. Once again, Zilisch should be the favorite heading into the race. But shooting down Mayer’s chances would be ill-advised. Mayer will likely be Zilisch’s best competitor on Saturday.

Ecosave 250

Connor Zilisch

In the midst of the opening race for the Craftsman Truck Series’ Round of 8, Spire Motorsports decided to let the field compete for second. Connor Zilisch will be climbing inside the 7 Truck to run the ROVAL on Friday. This will mark the young driver’s second Craftsman Truck Series start of the season. Driving for Niece Motorsports, Zilisch collected a Top-10 at Watkins Glen while filling in for a departing Kaden Honeycutt. The last time Zilisch drove for Spire on a road course, he left his mark on the COTA race. In qualifying, he easily broke the track record. During the race, Zilisch had to drive through the field twice to get his Top-5 finish.

When it is road racing in either lower series, Connor Zilisch automatically becomes one of the favorites. His skill on these types of tracks puts him in elite territory. Watching him pilot the 7 truck will be worth watching for the entirety of the race. Corey Heim will be the source of his main competition, which could give the fans a good battle for the win. Although Zilisch has yet to turn a lap on the ROVAL, his experience running the Daytona Road Course should be beneficial.

Kris Wright

Guess whose back? Kris Wright makes him NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series return this weekend at the ROVAL. Piloting the part-time truck for McAnally-Hilgeman Racing, Wright will be making his first Truck Series start since last year’s Pocono race. To start this season, Wright was driving for the now shut down Our Motorsports in their 5 car. Through 18 starts, Wright only managed a single Top-10 while averaging a 27.4 finish. For a comparison, Anthony Alfredo collected 7 Top-10s with an average finish of 18.5 for the team the season prior.

While fans feel begrudged to see Kris Wright return, McAnally is brining him in to race on his best style of racing (in the Truck Series). On road course, Wright has his best average finish of 22.4. More importantly, Wright has managed a lead lap finish in 4 of his 5 road course starts. Expectations should remain low for Wright this Friday, but he could turn in a passable performance. McAnally usually brings strong equipment for their drivers. Perhaps Wright could pull off a surprise and collect his first Truck Series Top-10. If not, watch to see if he causes his usually caution during the race.

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