A Denny Hamlin Championship?

Well, here we are again. Denny Hamlin has made it back to the Championship Four for the first time since 2021. This is his first appearance in the Next Gen Era. He qualified by getting career-win number 60 at Las Vegas. With this win he not only tied Kevin Harvick on the all-time wins list, but he broke his tie with Shane van Gisbergen for most wins in the season. Being both a Harvick and SVG fan, you can be sure I was not happy this past weekend. Right now, it certainly does look like Denny Hamlin’s championship hopes are high. Is this the year NASCAR fans get to witness the ever-so-elusive Denny Hamlin Championship? Or does he choke?

As much as I, and many other fans, would love to see Denny Hamlin choke again, I am going to attempt to be objective. Right now, he has the best chances of anyone to win the championship. Hamlin’s the only one locked in. He doesn’t have to worry about the big one at Talladega. Nor does he have to worry about a Matt Kenseth/Joey Logano type of situation at Martinsville. Hamlin could finish dead last at each of the upcoming races. He would still be in the Championship Four. Furthermore, with mind game masters like Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart being retired, Hamlin is less likely to cost himself the championship.

Ultimately, the fate of the Denny Hamlin championship season comes down to who else makes it.

Who Else Makes It?

Obviously, Hamlin’s chances at winning the championship depend a lot on who makes it. Yeah, it doesn’t seem like anyone eligible will play any mind games. That takes the pressure off the already prone-to-choke-under-pressure Hamlin. Earlier in the playoffs, after Chase Briscoe won the first race of the playoffs, I said that he was the favorite to win the championship this season. I stand by that statement. So obviously, if Chase Briscoe makes it to Phoenix, I don’t believe this is the year we see a Denny Hamlin championship.

Interestingly enough, this round of 8 has gotten us down to contenders from each manufacturer’s top teams. Including Hamlin, there are three total drivers from Toyota’s Joe Gibbs Racing. Furthermore, there are three championship eligible drivers from Chevrolet’s Hendrick Motorsports. Finally, there are two barely-eligible-but-still-hanging-on drivers from Ford’s Team Penske, both of whom are prone to come through with sneaky victories in must-win situations.

Hamlin hasn’t won the final race of the year, since he won it in 2013, which was before we even started the current playoff format. With this playoff format, however, he doesn’t have to win the final race. He only has to finish ahead of the other three competitors. It only seems natural to look at the possibilities from each top team from each manufacturer.

Hendrick Motorsports

Denny Hamlin could find himself up against three Hendrick Motorsports teammates in the Championship race at Phoenix. Currently, Kyle Larson is the only one above the cut line. When it comes to Hendrick Motorsports, Kyle Larson is the one Denny Hamlin should be most worried about. After a so-so round of 16, Larson hasn’t finished outside the top 10. While he finished second to Hamlin at Vegas, that was his second second place finish in a row. While getting his 60th career win and 6th win on the season, Hamlin only seems like he has momentum on his side. His trajectory has been much more bipolar. Yes, he has two playoff race victories and a second place at Kansas. There are very bad races (Bristol & the Roval) in between. Larson’s trajectory is one that seems to be going in the right direction.

Let’s not forget the other two Hendrick drivers in the playoffs though. Chase Elliott may not seem like he’s in the championship conversation, but that didn’t keep him from winning a championship in 2020. He is very capable of winning at drafting tracks. He could easily win his way into the championship round at Talladega (or Martinsville). You can’t forget William Byron either. I know it seems like his crash at Las Vegas really hurt him. He’s only 15 points below the cut line. Unlike the other two HMS drivers, Willy B. has never won a championship. I’m sure he wouldn’t mind taking one away from Hamlin though.

All that really matters in this format for this year, however, is performance at Phoenix. William Byron has finished in the top 5 the past two championship races there. Each time he ended up third in line for the title, with a 4th place finish and a 3rd place finish. Chase Elliott just doesn’t seem to be the same driver at Phoenix in the Next Gen car. Once again, Kyle Larson is the biggest threat to Hamlin here. In the past two seasons he has finished in the top 5 in the championship race. It only mattered in 2023, when it got him a second place finish in the championship. Larson finished P3 at the spring race in Phoenix. Hamlin finished P2 though.

Pesky Penske

In the Next Gen Era, only one team and one manufacturer have won the championship. Team Penske and Ford are undefeated in Next Gen titles. Right now, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney sit seventh and eighth in the standings. Joey Logano is 24 points under the cut line. Ryan Blaney is 31 below the cut line. Still, Talladega is the next race. Anything could happen there and both Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are very capable of winning there.

Honestly, I think Ryan Blaney is the bigger threat. So far, there have been seven races at Phoenix in the Next Gen era. In only one of those races has Ryan Blaney finished outside the top 5. Earlier this year, he finished 28th. In the last three championship races, Blaney has finished 2nd. While he’s not quite at the Kevin Harvick level of owning Phoenix Raceway, he’s probably the closest. On the other hand, Joey Logano only seems to own Phoenix when he’s in the Championship Four, driving a Next Gen car, and the championship race is at Phoenix. Each time those three variables come together, Joey Logano wins Phoenix. It’s happened twice in the last three years.

I still think that Chase Briscoe wins the championship this year, even if both Penske cars make it. Still, it’s hard to not worry about Penske winning the Cup Championship for the fourth year in a row if one of them makes it. Just one of them making it could be enough to get in Denny’s head and lead to him defeating himself.

Joe Gibbs Racing Teammates

While only two of Denny Hamlin’s JGR Teammates can win the championship this year, I still think it’s possible that all three are capable of preventing a Denny Hamlin Championship. Honestly, I believe that Briscoe has the best shot of the JGR drivers. In my opinion, he is still the favorite to win the championship. Briscoe is just too consistent right now. His worst finish in the playoffs is a 14th at the Roval. Every other playoff race he has finished in the top 10. In four out of the seven playoff races thus far, he has finished in the top 5. Yeah, he couldn’t hold off Hamlin at Vegas, but Denny kind of owes Ty Gibbs for that. I don’t think Hamlin runs Briscoe down without that late restart caution for which some blame Gibbs and others blame Bell.

Speaking of Christopher Bell, he too has had a killer playoff run. Bell, like Briscoe, has one finish outside the top 10. Bell’s was a 29th place at Darlington. Bell also has four top 5 finishes in the seven playoff races held thus far. Bell won the most recent Next Gen race at Phoenix back in the spring. Briscoe won the very first Next Gen race at Phoenix back when he drove for the fading Stewart-Haas Racing.

Briscoe, Bell, and Larson seem to be the biggest threats to Denny Hamlin’s upcoming shot at a championship. Let’s not forget, Hamlin’s other teammate, Ty Gibbs. He too could be capable of costing Denny Hamlin a championship. Gibbs is young and so far has seemed hot headed. Yet, after his recent issue with teammate Hamlin, we haven’t seen an immediate response. Perhaps, he’s just waiting for the perfect time.

Then again, if that’s what ends up happening, wouldn’t that just be Denny Hamlin costing himself the championship once again?  Imagine the interview outside the infield care center where a healthy and safe Denny Hamlin has to look into the camera and tell the world, “I just beat MY favorite driver.”