This article is a race finish projection for the Fall Las Vegas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Las Vegas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-6 drivers finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 1st, Chris Buescher 4th, Ryan Blaney 13th, Chase Briscoe 14th, Ty Dillon 27th & Austin Dillon 31st)
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (32 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,216, 4.85%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 484 of 1,216, 39.80%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 510 of 1,216, 41.94%
-Correct Winner projections: 6 of 32, 18.75%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 151 of 320, 47.19%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Josh Berry
Mr. 100 in NASCAR 25 hasn’t won since Iowa in August, but he does have a win here in 2023 and is projected to win this weekend down below. Photo by Sam Morris — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 36th -35 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd -1 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 5th -2 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 23rd -18 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 18th -12 |
| 7. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 12th -5 |
| 8. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +4 |
| 9. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +7 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 22nd -11 |
| 12. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +5 |
| 13. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 38th -25 |
| 14. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 19th -5 |
| 15. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th -19 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 32nd -16 |
| 17. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 9th +8 |
| 18. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 20th -2 |
| 19. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +11 |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | 15th +5 |
| 21. | 7 | Justin Haley | 27th -6 |
| 22. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 16th +6 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 11th +12 |
| 24. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 10th +14 |
| 25. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 29th -4 |
| 26. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 13th +13 |
| 27. | 21 | Josh Berry | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 38 | Zane Smith | 24th +4 |
| 29. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 14th +15 |
| 30. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 33rd -3 |
| 31. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th +6 |
| 32. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 31st +1 |
| 33. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 28th +6 |
| 35. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 17th +18 |
| 36. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 37th -1 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 35th +2 |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 30th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.