This article is a race finish projection for the Fall Martinsville Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Martinsville Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 40th
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 20th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-9 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-23 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the 40 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished outside the Top 25
Notes from all point race projections this year (34 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,294, 4.56%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 510 of 1,294, 39.41%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 547 of 1,294, 42.27%
-Correct Winner projections: 6 of 34, 17.65%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 159 of 340, 46.76%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Kyle Larson’s only Martinsville win came back in 2023, but according to the projection below he will pick up his 2nd win here this weekend. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th -4 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 8th -4 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 35th -30 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 18th -11 |
| 8. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 37th -29 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 4th +5 |
| 10. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 31st -21 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th +4 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 13th -1 |
| 13. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 6th +7 |
| 14. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 11th +3 |
| 15. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 24th -9 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 23rd -7 |
| 17. | 41 | Cole Custer | 17th +0 |
| 18. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +16 |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 22nd -3 |
| 20. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 15th +6 |
| 22. | 21 | Josh Berry | 10th +12 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 16th +7 |
| 24. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 29th -5 |
| 25. | 38 | Zane Smith | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 9th +17 |
| 27. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 28th -1 |
| 28. | 7 | Justin Haley | 19th +9 |
| 29. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 14th +16 |
| 31. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 36th -5 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 21st +11 |
| 33. | 43 | Erik Jones | 34th -1 |
| 34. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 27th +7 |
| 35. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 30th +5 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 32nd +4 |
| 37. | 66 | Casey Mears | 33rd +4 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.