This article is a race finish projection for the Charlotte Roval Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Roval Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Road Course tracks (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 6th
Last weeks winner: Chase Elliott
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the 37 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-9 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished inside the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (31 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 53 of 1,179, 4.50%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 464 of 1,179, 39.36%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 499 of 1,179, 42.32%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 31, 16.13%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 143 of 310, 46.13%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: Tyler Reddick
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland
SVG has been dominant on Road Courses in the Cup Series this year, and so it is no surprise to see that he is the projected winner at the Roval this weekend down below. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd -1 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 11th -8 |
| 4. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 4th +0 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 10th -5 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 5th +2 |
| 8. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th +1 |
| 10. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 21st -10 |
| 12. | 22 | Joey Logano | 20th -8 |
| 13. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 34th -19 |
| 16. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 15th +1 |
| 17. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 23rd -6 |
| 18. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 29th -11 |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 35th -16 |
| 20. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 36th -16 |
| 21. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 7th +14 |
| 22. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 18th +4 |
| 23. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 6th +17 |
| 24. | 7 | Justin Haley | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 37th -12 |
| 26. | 41 | Cole Custer | 22nd +4 |
| 27. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 27th +0 |
| 28. | 51 | Cody Ware | 33rd -5 |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 38 | Zane Smith | 24th +6 |
| 31. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 31st +0 |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 21 | Josh Berry | 16th +17 |
| 34. | 43 | Erik Jones | 30th +4 |
| 35. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +18 |
| 36. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 32nd +4 |
| 37. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19th +16 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.