This article is a race finish projection for the Fall Phoenix Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Phoenix Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 5th
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-4 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 3rd, Cole Custer 17th, Brad Keselowski 20th, Zane Smith 25th)
-8 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-9 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished inside the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (35 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 63 of 1,331, 4.73%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 530 of 1,331, 39.82%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 556 of 1,331, 41.77%
-Correct Winner projections: 6 of 35, 17.14%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 164 of 350, 46.86%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ryan Blaney
Disappointment: Brad Keselowski
William Byron won last week at Martinsville to punch his ticket to the Championship 4, and the projection below says he wins again to get his 1st Cup Series Championship. Photo by David Jensen — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 33rd -32 |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 6th -2 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 10th -5 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 12th -4 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 13th -4 |
| 10. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 15th -5 |
| 11. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 26th -15 |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 18th -6 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 28th -15 |
| 14. | 21 | Josh Berry | 7th +7 |
| 15. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 37th -22 |
| 16. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 21st -5 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 5th +13 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 34th -15 |
| 20. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 9th +11 |
| 21. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 20th +2 |
| 23. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +21 |
| 24. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 8th +16 |
| 25. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st -6 |
| 26. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 27th -1 |
| 27. | 38 | Zane Smith | 29th -2 |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 38th -9 |
| 30. | 66 | Casey Mears | 36th -6 |
| 31. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 22nd +9 |
| 32. | 41 | Cole Custer | 25th +7 |
| 33. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 35th -2 |
| 34. | 7 | Justin Haley | 14th +20 |
| 35. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 24th +11 |
| 36. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 23rd +13 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th +7 |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 32nd +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.