***Editor’s note: Due to being sick all week this article came out after the race, but with this being only based on stats from before the race the results from the race were not taken into account.
This article is a race finish projection for the Spring Atlanta Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Atlanta Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025/26 Superspeedway tracks (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. At non-superspeedway tracks, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chris Buescher
Finished: 7th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (B.J. McLeod 41st)
-9 of the 41 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-25 of the 41 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the 41 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished inside the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (1 race):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 1 of 41, 2.44%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 9 of 41, 21.95%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 25 of 41, 60.98%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 1, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 3 of 10, 30.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Carson Hocevar
Disappointment: Chase Briscoe
Chase Elliott was so close to a Daytona 500 win last week. However, the stats say this week he gets the race win and goes back to back in Atlanta. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 11th -10 |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 10th -8 |
| 3. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 34th -30 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +5 |
| 7. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 36th -29 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 18th -10 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 28th -19 |
| 10. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 17th -7 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 8th +3 |
| 12. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 12th +0 |
| 13. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 32nd -18 |
| 15. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 37th -22 |
| 16. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 20th -4 |
| 17. | 38 | Zane Smith | 7th +10 |
| 18. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 23rd -5 |
| 19. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 21st -2 |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | 24th -4 |
| 21. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 15th +6 |
| 22. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 30th -8 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 26th -3 |
| 24. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 9th +15 |
| 25. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 13th +13 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19th +8 |
| 28. | 21 | Josh Berry | 38th +10 |
| 29. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +27 |
| 30. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 16th +14 |
| 31. | 41 | Cole Custer | 22nd +9 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 29th +3 |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 33rd +0 |
| 34. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 6th +28 |
| 35. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 14th +21 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 27th +9 |
| 37. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 35th +2 |
| 38. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 31st +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.