This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 COTA Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen COTA Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Road Course (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 11th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (A.J. Allmendinger 12th,Todd Gilliland 25th, Riley Herbst 33rd)
-7 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (2 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 4 of 79, 5.06%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 23 of 79, 29.11%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 40 of 79, 50.63%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 2, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 7 of 20, 35.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: Michael McDowell
Disappointment: Connor Zilisch
According to the stats it will be Tyler Reddick’s 2 race win streak that ends this weekend, but don’t be surprised if he wins and SVG’s 5 straight Road Course wins falls. Photo by Adam Davis — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 7th -4 |
| 4. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 5th -1 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 35th -30 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd +3 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 13th -6 |
| 8. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 37th -29 |
| 9. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 36th -27 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 8th +2 |
| 11. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 24th -13 |
| 12. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 9th +3 |
| 13. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 6th +8 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 31st -16 |
| 16. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 12th +4 |
| 17. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 25th -8 |
| 18. | 22 | Joey Logano | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 41 | Cole Custer | 29th -9 |
| 21. | 33 | Jesse Love | 27th -6 |
| 22. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 11th +11 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 32nd -9 |
| 24. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 18th +6 |
| 25. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 21st +4 |
| 26. | 38 | Zane Smith | 33rd -7 |
| 27. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 14th +13 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 20th +9 |
| 30. | 21 | Josh Berry | 26th +4 |
| 31. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 16th +15 |
| 32. | 43 | Erik Jones | 34th -2 |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 23rd +10 |
| 34. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 22nd +12 |
| 35. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 19th +16 |
| 36. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 28th +8 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.