This article is a race finish projection for the Daytona 500 Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Daytona Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Superspeedway tracks (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. At non-superspeedway tracks, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 33rd
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 3rd)
-10 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished inside the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections last year (36 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 64 of 1,369, 4.67%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 546 of 1,369, 39.88%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 569 of 1,369, 41.56%
-Correct Winner projections: 6 of 36, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 169 of 360, 46.94%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chris Buescher
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Denny Hamlin
Chris Buescher is no stranger to success at Daytona as he won here in August 2023, and the stats say he’ll add a Daytona 2026 win to that. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 7th -6 |
| 2. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 10th -8 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 40 | Justin Allgaier | 38th -34 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 16th -11 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 27th -21 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 35th -28 |
| 8. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 22nd -14 |
| 9. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 23rd -14 |
| 10. | 41 | Cole Custer | 24th -14 |
| 11. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +10 |
| 12. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 15th -3 |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | 3rd +10 |
| 14. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th -12 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 40th -25 |
| 16. | 24 | William Byron | 12th +4 |
| 17. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 33rd -16 |
| 18. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 5th +13 |
| 19. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +6 |
| 20. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 34th -14 |
| 21. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 36th -15 |
| 22. | 43 | Erik Jones | 21st +1 |
| 23. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 29th -6 |
| 24. | 34 | Todd Gilliand | 39th -15 |
| 25. | 38 | Zane Smith | 6th +19 |
| 26. | 67 | Corey Heim | 28th -2 |
| 27. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 25th +2 |
| 28. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 20th +8 |
| 29. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 14th +15 |
| 30. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 18th +12 |
| 31. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 2nd +29 |
| 32. | 21 | Josh Berry | 9th +23 |
| 33. | 51 | Cody Ware | 17th +16 |
| 34. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 37th -2 |
| 36. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 19th +17 |
| 37. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 30th +7 |
| 38. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 11th +27 |
| 39. | 66 | Casey Mears | 32nd +7 |
| 40. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 8th +32 |
| 41. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 41st +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.