Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch: Las Vegas

Part two of NASCAR’s mini-west coast swing (unless you count COTA) leads the Cup and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Out in the desert, both series will tackle the first intermediate of the schedule. Although Phoenix gave a little insight to whose who of the garage, Las Vegas has been marked as the first true test of equipment. A traditional mile-and-half tends to be the best judge of speed. Will the usual suspects lead the charge or could some of the underdogs step it up? For the O’Reilly Series, the standings reflect the top teams have run well. However, the Cup Series illustrates a different story. Many contenders are below the cutline. Will Las Vegas be the time for them to turn it around? Which of these drivers will feature in this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for Las Vegas?

Corey Day

One of the most notable drivers of the 2026 season thus far has been Corey Day. While it could have been for an impressive start (3 straight Top-10s), instead the focus on Day has been due to his frequent incidents. Day has been part of at least one incident per race. Often, it is multiple incidents per race where Day is the instigating factor. Handpicked by Kyle Larson to make the jump from dirt racing to NASCAR, Day failed to live up to the hype last year. Now that he starting to finish well, it is completely overshadowed by his driving. While other promising drivers grew a reputation for an aggressive style that ruffled feathers, that does not seem to be the case for Day. Rather than aggressive driving, it is bonehead mistakes.

These mistakes are having significant impact on the field around him. When Day makes contact with another driver, it usually ends their day or at least ruins it. His name has become a popular feature on O’Reilly drivers’ radio. What might be the worst of it though is Day’s media appearances after these incidents. The most notable of these was after COTA when he spun Connor Zilisch out. Instead of an apology or owning up to the mistake, Day resembled a politician in his interview. That needs to be fixed. If Day can clean up his driving, then the NASCAR world could appreciate his notable improvement this season. Until then though, everyone will await the first round of retaliation.

William Sawalich

From one prospect to another, William Sawalich’s 2026 season has picked up where his 2025 left off. Through 4 races, Sawalich only has a single lead-lap finish (a Top-10 at COTA) and 2 DNFs. While the wild card nature of the start of the season could be to blame, it does unfortunately match what Sawalich has done in his O’Reilly career so far. Once considered a top prospect of NASCAR, Sawalich’s tenure away from the ARCA Menards Series is tarnishing that status. Across 38 starts, the Joe Gibbs Racing prospect has only amassed a single Top-5 and 10 Top-10s. His average finish of 19.7 is weak considering he is driving for JGR. Granted, Sawalich is only 19 so there is plenty of time for him to turn it around. However, it would be an understatement to say he is failing to live up to expectations.

What is frustrating about William Sawalich’s performance is he is capable of finding speed in the car. While his average finish sits at 19.7, his average start is 10.0. Whether it is finding trouble or struggling over the length of the race, Sawalich consistently plummets after good starting positions. That said, his last start at Las Vegas saw Sawalich finsih essentially where he started. Last fall, Sawalich qualified the 18 car 11th and finished 12th. More days like that will help rebuild Sawalich’s reputation. If he could do it last year at Las Vegas, why not this year?

Michael McDowell

One of the early surprises inside the Top-10 of points is Michael McDowell. Off the back of consecutive Top-10s, McDowell heads into Las Vegas 8th in points. While Spire Motorsports has looked quicker as a collective this year, McDowell has again proved to be the veteran leader the organization needs. Carson ‘The Hurricane’ Hocevar might gain the attention, McDowell has proven to be the most consistent driver. Obviously, his later days with Front Row Motorsports previewed this. Bringing Travis Peterson over with McDowell was a brilliant move by Spire, continuing a strong crew chief/driver pairing. With Las Vegas this weekend, the question for this team will be whether the speed is legitimate.

Last year, a consistent theme for the 71 team was hot qualifying laps that did not lead into strong results. In this race last year, McDowell managed to nab the pole. Despite this though, the Spire driver only led 5 laps (only 1 at the star to the race) and failed to score any stage points. While it is important to qualify well, the rate in which McDowell would drop through the field was alarming. After a season to work out the kinks, maybe the car can remain where it qualifies. That will be important to McDowell’s efforts to stay inside the Top-16. Las Vegas will be a big test for the 71 team.

Ty Gibbs

After suffering through the superspeedways, Ty Gibbs collected back-to-back fourth place finishes. COTA was the more impressive run, as he won Stage 2 while still finding his way back to the Top-5. However, Phoenix could have been Gibbs’s first win of his career. Restarting as the leader on the final two restarts, Gibbs had an opportunity to steal the win away from Ryan Blaney. That failed to transpire though as Blaney pulled an impressive crossover move on the young Joe Gibbs Racing driver. The two strong runs might have been imperative to avoid off-track drama to creep in. The lawsuit between Joe Gibb Racing and Chris Gabehart unveiled some questionable (but expected) treatment of Ty Gibbs and the 54 team. If Gibbs had struggled at COTA and Phoenix, the noise around the team would be louder.

With how promising the past two weeks have been, the question of when Ty Gibbs will pick up his first win returns. His struggles in the second half of 2025 fogged up that narrative, as getting a good finish was doubtful at times. If the 54’s speed at COTA and Phoenix is accurate to how the team will run all season, that first win might be close. Could Las Vegas host that first career win? Based on general Joe Gibbs Racing speed, then possibly. Usually, the entire fleet of JGR brings top of the leaderboard speed. However, Gibbs has not been part of that in recent trips. Gibbs picked up a Top-5 in the spring of 2024, but has failed to finish better than 22nd since. The equipment is race-winning worthy. Can the driver flip the recent script and live up to that speed?

Chase Elliott

While it might seem odd to be concerned over the driver sitting fourth in points, Chase Elliott’s last two races have left plenty to be desired. Yes, Elliott did finish 7th at COTA. However, his average running position was 18th and the loose-wheel caution bolstered his result. Looking at last week, the 9 team completely missed the mark. Elliott qualified 26th and finished 23rd. Even though he got caught up in an accident, his day was not going well before getting damage. The 9 car was frequently running outside the Top-20 prior to the damage. Simply put, Chase Elliott was slow.

It would be easy to chalk up last week as Hendrick’s usual struggles at Phoenix. Kyle Larson and William Byron certainly were not battling it out for the win. That said, those two at least were running inside the Top-15 for the length of the race. Phoenix again pushed the idea that Elliott is lagging significantly behind his teammates. Will Las Vegas be the same story? While both Larson and Byron has won at Vegas in the Gen7 era, Elliott’s best finish is 9th. In his 7 Las Vegas starts, Elliott only has 2 Top-10s and no laps led. If Las Vegas is the first true test of the season, Chase Elliott does not seem to be in good position to pass.

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