Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch: Phoenix

After two superspeedways and a road course, the NASCAR schedule starts to hit some of the “normal” tracks on the schedule. Well, sort of. Phoenix Raceway is more aligned with the traditional tracks on the circuit, but still has enough of a uniqueness to keep it in a different category. While this weekend will be the start of giving fans insights into the contenders versus the pretenders, it will not be conclusive. NASCAR’s Cup and O’Reilly Series leave the Truck Series behind this weekend as they head to the desert. In the place of the Truck Series will IndyCar, who is splitting this FOX doubleheader. In a race weekend where fans will be looking for clues to how the season will go, there are plenty of options for drivers to watch. Who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for Phoenix?

Chandler Smith

Back in NASCAR’s second series this weekend is Chandler Smith. After getting off to a strong start in the Craftsman Truck Series, Smith will be spending those off-weeks driving for Hettinger Racing’s 5 entry. If Smith can qualify that car into the field, it would bring up the number of Fords in the race to a whopping 2 (could be 3 if Daniel Dye can qualify AM Racing’s second entry in). For Hettinger Racing, they hope that Smith can help them bounce back after missing the show at COTA.

Chandler Smith is a wise choice for Hettinger Racing. In his 4 starts at Phoenix, Smith has an average finish of 4.8 with a win in 2024. Barring an equipment issue, Smith should be able to qualify for Saturday’s race with ease. He knows how to get around this track well. Will that lead to him contending in the race? Not for a win, but maybe a Top-10. Due to the schedule thus far, it is difficult to pinpoint how good Hettinger’s equipment stacks up with the field. If it can stack up to AM Racing, then a Top-10 is feasible.

Patrick Staropoli

When the news broke that Patrick Staropoli would be the driver to replace Nick Sanchez for Big Machine Racing, it screamed “pay driver”. To be fair, almost anyone who Big Machine picked would see that label attached after Sanchez was let go due to financial reasons. That said, Staropoli had done little to endear fans to the idea of him driving arguably the top B-tier ride in the O’Reilly Series. In his return to motorsports, the doctor struggled to Top-10 in 6 ARCA starts. Now, he gets to replace a driver who won a race in 2025. For Staropoli, he will need to prove it to win over the fans.

Phoenix will be the first step of that journey. Superspeedways and a road course are no-win situations for this. If Staropoli picked up a few Top-10s, it would be chalked up to luck. Meanwhile, too many struggles would shine a brighter spotlight on the team. Staropoli managed to fly under the radar the first 3 races though. However, this weekend will be different. On a track where Big Machine is capable of competing for a Top-10, Staropoli’s skills will be under scrutiny. If the 48 is lagging outside the Top-20, it will be a damning indictment.

Anthony Alfredo

A double dip entry this weekend. Initially, Anthony Alfredo was going to be a driver to watch for the O’Reilly Series due to his bumpy start to the 2026 season. Starting with a new team in Viking Motorsports, the transition has been unkind to Alfredo. Missing the opening race at Daytona in his 96 entry was the proverbial insult to injury after getting disqualified from the Daytona 500. While he salvaged an 11th place finish, it was in the Alpha Prime #4 entry. Following that up with two finishes outside the Top-20 and Alfredo still is struggling to find his footing. Hopefully, Phoenix can turn the tide for the young driver.

While that is certainly enough reason to watch Anthony Alfredo this weekend, the microscope was turned up after the announcement that Alfredo will be filling in for Alex Bowman this weekend. Bowman will miss Phoenix while he continues to recover from vertigo, which assumedly is what caused him to step out of the car last week. Now, Alfredo will have a tremendous opportunity to impress. Stepping in for Hendrick Motorsports drivers helped launch Josh Berry’s Cup career. At the same time, it tanked Corey LaJoie’s credibility. At the very least, the hope is that Alfredo can impress in his start. If so, maybe Alfredo could be a more in-demand name this silly season (at least for the lower series).

AJ Allmendinger

After three races, AJ Allmendinger is sitting in the thick of The Chase standings. With his 9th place finish at COTA, Allmendinger finds himself in 8th in points. That is despite not having spectacular results on either superspeedway to kick off the season. Chasing the points at COTA, Allmendinger ended up being the fourth highest points scorer last Sunday. That is before he nearly passed out on pit road after a gutsy drive. While Allmendinger is an underrated driver, the surprise of where Allmendinger sits in points is down to Kaulig Racing.

A team that has been on the decline for a bit, their switch to RAM in NASCAR’s lower series has cut their ties to Chevrolet. Similar to what happened to Legacy Motor Club after the Toyota announcement, Kaulig’s Cup efforts are receiving practically no help from Chevy anymore. Despite that, Allmendinger sits inside the Top-10. Yes, the first three tracks do line up well for Allmendinger to do so. Plus, there were surprise drivers last year in the Top-16 in points through the first 3 races who then faded. However, it is notable that Allmendinger is doing this with no manufacturer support. Maybe Phoenix will be the start of the decline, but that is why AJ Allmendinger is a must to watch this weekend.

Ryan Blaney

Who is the most likely driver to end Tyler Reddick’s reign of terror? Well, it probably is Tyler Reddick and his struggles at Phoenix. Other than that though, the best bet to dethrone Reddick from victory lane boils down to two main competitors: Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney. Although Bell has won the past 2 spring Phoenix dates, Blaney might be the man to beat this weekend. Team Penske is notable for their strong performances out in the desert, with Blaney being the leader of the pack. Outside of an engine failure last spring, Blaney’s last finish outside the Top-5 at Phoenix is the spring of 2021.

While Blaney’s history at Phoenix certainly makes a compelling argument, his car’s speed last week is the main factor. From the start of practice, everyone noticed how fast the 12 car was. Especially on the long runs, there were no cars better than Blaney early on Sunday. Tyler Reddick did manage to keep Blaney at bay, but the 12 team were worthy opponents. Now shift from a weaker track to one of Blaney’s best and that should only boost the speed. You could not go wrong putting your faith in Christopher Bell this weekend. However, the smart choice would seem to be Ryan Blaney.

Critical Path Security is a cyber security firm protecting clients in the United States and the world beyond. Founded in 2017, they are as dedicated as ever to providing coverage for their clients in numerous industries. Please give them a follow (X, Facebook, LinkedIn) and thank them for their continued sponsorship of the Critical Path Security Drivers to Watch series.