This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Las VegasCup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Las Vegas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Ryan Blaney 1st, John Hunter Nemechek 25th, Cole Custer 35th)
-9 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished inside the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (4 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 7 of 153, 4.58%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 47 of 153, 30.72%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 70 of 153, 45.75%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 4, 25.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 19 of 40, 47.50%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Kyle Busch
Disappointment: Josh Berry
The stats and weekend so far say that William Byron will end this weeekends Las Vegas race much like he did in 2023, in Victory Lane. Photo by Matthew Bolt — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 4. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 8. | 8 | Kyle Busch | – |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 11. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 12. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 13. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 14. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 16. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 17. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 18. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 19. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 20. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 23. | 48 | Justin Allgaier | – |
| 24. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 25. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 26. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 27. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 28. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 29. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 30. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 31. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 32. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | – |
| 33. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 35. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
| 36. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.