This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Phoenix Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Phoenix Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 2nd

Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-5 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 7 drivers finished inside the Top 7

Notes from all point race projections this year (3 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 4 of 116, 3.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 35 of 116, 30.17%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 52 of 116, 44.83%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 3, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 13 of 30, 43.33%

Notable results this week

Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Brad Keselowski

According to the stats and his weekend speed Ryan Blaney will become the first driver to win back-to-back Phoenix Cup races since Kyle Busch in 2018-19. Photo by Meg Oliphant — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 12 Ryan Blaney 1st +0
2. 22 Joey Logano 31st -29
3. 20 Christopher Bell 2nd +1
4. 1 Ross Chastain 28th -24
5. 5 Kyle Larson 3rd +2
6. 17 Chris Buescher 14th -8
7. 11 Denny Hamlin 5th +2
8. 24 William Byron 7th +1
9. 19 Chase Briscoe 37th -28
10. 45 Tyler Reddick 8th +2
11. 2 Austin Cindric 34th -23
12. 7 Daniel Suarez 30th -18
13. 77 Carson Hocevar 20th -7
14. 21 Josh Berry 32nd -18
15. 9 Chase Elliott 23rd -8
16. 88 Connor Zilisch 29th -13
17. 71 Michael McDowell 9th +8
18. 54 Ty Gibbs 4th +14
19. 60 Ryan Preece 13th +6
20. 8 Kyle Busch 17th +3
21. 48 Anthony Alfredo 33rd -12
22. 23 Bubba Wallace 6th +16
23. 33 Austin Hill 21st +2
24. 3 Austin Dillon 16th +8
25. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 25th +0
26. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22nd +4
27. 6 Brad Keselowski 15th +12
28. 43 Erik Jones 10th +18
29. 97 Shane Van Gisbergen 11th +18
30. 4 Noah Gragson 36th -6
31. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 19th +12
32. 38 Zane Smith 27th +5
33. 34 Todd Gilliland 12th +21
34. 35 Riley Herbst 18th +16
35. 41 Cole Custer 35th +0
36. 10 Ty Dillon 26th +10
37. 51 Cody Ware 24th +13

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.