2022 Season in Review: Stewart-Haas Racing

Stewart-Haas Racing is in a peculiar spot currently. Since 2020, SHR has lost a step in their performance. 2021 was particularly bad. From ten wins in 2020 to only a random win by Aric Almirola, 2021 blasted alarm sounds to Ford fans. Where did the speed go? Even with Almirola’s win, his performance was down significantly in 2021. Heading into 2022, Stewart-Haas Racing was looking to rebound strongly and prove 2021 was a fluke. Did they accomplish this? Best answer is a shoulder shrug.

Kevin Harvick – #4

2022 Stat Line: 36 Starts – 2 Wins, 9 Top-5s, 17 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 14.3

Crew Chief: Rodney Childers

Driver’s Points Ranking: 15; Owner’s Points Ranking: 16

Notable Results: Back-to-back wins at Michigan and Richmond, “Crappy parts” quote

If there is one word for Kevin Harvick’s season, it is inconsistent. On paper, Kevin Harvick put up a solid season. While it is a dip for Harvick, the numbers are nothing to be angry about. He was able to bounce back with two wins after a winless season. Harvick only lost one Top-5 compared to the prior year. However, his Top-10s dipped by seven and his average finished ballooned by three positions. Plus, that is comparing Harvick to a down 2021. Compared to his other seasons with Stewart-Haas Racing, it is a drastic fall.

Early in the season, Harvick did not have the pace that fans expect. While he was scoring Top-10s, he was never seen as a serious contender for race wins. A fuel strategy play at Spring Richmond was the closet he came to victory lane. On the fringe of the playoffs toward the end of the regular season, Harvick pulled two wins from out of nowhere to claim his spot in the playoffs. Not only were the wins random, Harvick dominated those races. That is Harvick’s season in a nutshell. It was difficult to know what to expect from Harvick from week to week.

Crappy Parts

As one of the elder statesmen of the sport, Kevin Harvick was very vocal about his distain for the Next Gen car. When reviewing his season, it makes sense. Before getting to the safety issues, Harvick’s season demonstrates the random nature of the car. How can a veteran team like Harvick’s go from dominating Michigan after running sluggish at Pocono? Harvick is a great driver. Childers is a great crew chief. While SHR might be struggling recently, the 4 team has been the consistent team. It is hard to believe that Harvick’s team simply missed the setup that many times in a season.

Now consider the safety issues with the car. While Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman suffered from the poor impact design of the car, Kevin Harvick (as well as others) experienced the flaming feature of the Next Gen car. During the first playoff race at Darlington, Harvick had to escape from a burning car. Harvick did not smack a wall or another car to take damage. The car simply went up into flames due to a design flaw. When interviewed about it, Harvick blamed the “crappy parts” of the Next Gen car. It was damning statement against NASCAR’s new car.

2022 Grade: C+

Was this a bounce back year for Harvick? In the sense of wins, yes. Harvick managed to find victory lane twice after failing to do so in 2021. In terms of consistency, no. Harvick’s average finish was his lowest since 2009. Once again, it is difficult to determine whether that is down to Harvick and his team or the Next Gen car. Even with the randomness of the Next Gen car, a high quality team like Harvick’s should be better at setting it up and producing results. If Hendrick and Penske can do it, so can Harvick and Childers with SHR.

With that said, Harvick’s hot streak to end the regular season should have seen him stroll deeper into the playoffs. A flaming car and bad luck wreck at Kansas killed his playoff chances. Harvick had a chance to win his way forward at Bristol, but a mishap while changing a tire led to that possibility going up in smoke. For a driver of Harvick’s caliber, the expectations are higher. For a majority of drivers, this season would be at least a B. Not for Harvick though.

2023 Driver Outlook

Many believe 2023 to be Kevin Harvick’s last season of full-time competition. He will be 47 years old next year. His past two seasons have been massive dips in performance compared to the rest of his SHR tenure. Harvick does not seem to be the type who will cling onto the Cup Series. Add in that his son’s racing career is already underway spells a retirement tour coming in 2023.

While Harvick’s 2022 saw inconsistency, fans can expect some of the few constants in Harvick’s career. He will make the playoffs with at least a win next season. Unless the car revolts against Harvick again, he should be able to advance through at least one round of the playoffs. Fans can debate where his playoffs end. On one hand, Harvick’s (and SHR’s) decline in performance make it difficult to say he is a Championship Four contender. At the same time, Kevin Harvick is a great driver with a great crew chief. You can never count him out.

Aric Almirola – #10

2022 Stat Line: 36 Starts – 2 Top-5s, 7 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 17.8, 1 Pole

Crew Chief: Drew Blickensderfer

Driver’s Points Ranking: 20; Owner’s Points Ranking: 20

Notable Results: Pole at Bristol Night; Announced retirement prior to season; Announced unretirement during the season

Aric Almirola started off 2022 on a bit of a hot streak. In the first three races of the season, Almirola rattled off three straight Top-10s. He was the only driver to do that in 2022. After Spring Phoenix, Almirola was sixth in points. The outlook to his season looked promising. Then the rest of the season happened. Almirola’s strong start to the season has seemingly been erased from the mind with an unmemorable finish to the year. In what was supposed to be his retirement season, Almirola was a non-factor in almost every race.

While Almirola was not outright bad, his performances were mediocre at best. Consistently finishing in the Top-20 is fine but not from a Stewart-Haas Racing car. From the middle of the season onward is where the mediocrity settled in. After getting his last Top-5 of the year at WWT Raceway, Almirola only collected two Top-10s for the remainder of the season. In those 21 races, Almirola’s average finish was 20.4. Compared to his average finish of 14.2 in the first 15 races, that is a massive drop-off in performance. Despite that drop-off, Smithfield decided to reup with Almirola to call off the retirement.

2022 Grade: C-

The only thing that keeps Almirola from a D is that Smithfield is letting him unretire. Plus, his early season hot streak was impressive. The only driver to score three Top-10s to start the season is nothing to belittle, especially with what is now known about the Next Gen car. With that said, Almirola’s season was mediocre and boring. Between the four SHR drivers, his season is the most difficult to remember. What were the significant moments of Almirola’s season on the track?

When reviewing Stewart-Haas Racing’s decline since the end of 2020, Almirola embodies it perfectly. While Almirola was never a consistent race winner, he found steady pace behind the wheel of the #10 SHR car. His first three seasons with the team saw his average finish below 15 each year. Almirola’s steady hand was a welcome addition to the SHR team after Danica Patrick.

Fast forward to 2022, that steady hand looks limp. This is the first season where Almirola missed the playoffs. After being the consistent Top-10 poacher, 2021 and 2022 saw Almirola settle into a mid-pack role. For a driver that seems to need great equipment to product quality results, SHR’s dip in performance has hurt Almirola the most, especially in 2022. Luckily for Almirola, an uninspiring season will not be the end of his career.

2023 Driver Outlook

Aric Almirola will be returning to SHR for two more seasons. In 2023, the hope is that the #10 team can find the speed again. As said previously, Almirola will never be the driver to rack up multiple wins in a season. In his career, he only has three. Two of those three came at superspeedways. However, as a SHR driver, Almirola is normally a Top-10 driver who can flirt with race winning speed. Those performances have abandoned Almirola except for 2021 New Hampshire.

Who knows what to expect out of Aric Almirola next season. The wisest guess is that he will be a Top-15 contender each week and hang around the playoff bubble. Depending on how many different winners there are next season, Almirola is a threat to point his way in. With the Next Gen car, he could find himself in victory lane before the regular season ends. Should anyone bank on that happening? No; but a playoff berth is the ceiling for this team in 2023 unless serious changes happen.

Chase Briscoe – #14

2022 Stat Line: 36 Starts – 1 Win, 6 Top-5s, 10 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 17.3, 1 Pole

Crew Chief: John Klausmeier

Driver’s Points Ranking: 9; Owner’s Points Ranking: 8

Notable Results: Win at Spring Phoenix; Advanced to the Round of Eight in the playoffs

Thankfully for Chase Briscoe and his fans, Briscoe’s 2022 was a huge improvement from 2021. Coming into 2021, Chase Briscoe had lofty expectations for his rookie season. After an nine win 2020 Xfinity Series season, many believed Briscoe would have an easy transition into the Cup Series for SHR. Those expectations were never met during Briscoe’s rookie year. As the running theme for SHR, it was difficult to determine whether the weak performance was due to man or machine.

2022 put a lot of those concerns to rest for Chase Briscoe. Was it a fantastic season? In terms of playoff results, yes. However, taking a close look into Briscoe’s statistics shows the same inconsistencies that plagued Harvick’s 2022. In ten races, Briscoe failed to finish on the lead lap. It was an odd season statistically for Briscoe. If he was not finishing in the Top-10, he was struggling to stay in the Top-20.

Finding Form in the Playoffs

While the majority of Chase Briscoe’s 2022 season was a mixed bag of results, he found his form during the playoffs. Though his first round was decent, Briscoe turned it on to finish the season strong. Outside of crashing out at Talladega, Briscoe scored a Top-10 finish in every race after Bristol. Half of his Top-5s on the year came during the playoffs. His strong finish to the season pushed him through to the Round of Eight. If Briscoe’s regular season closer to his playoff run, he would have been in a great position to race his way into the Championship Four.

2022 Grade: A-

Bottom line, Chase Briscoe turned a severely disappointing rookie season into a Round of Eight appearance. He scored his first win of his Cup Series career. This season was a great success for both Briscoe and his team. The way Briscoe finished the year is how fans expect a Stewart-Hass car to drive. Briscoe needs to bring that level of performance to the rest of the season.

Inconsistency was a prime feature of the regular season for Chase Briscoe though.  Briscoe had more finishes outside of the Top-20 (12) than he did Top-10s. That is a bad statistic for his 2022 season. Once again, examining Briscoe’s season in closer detail shines a light on underlying flaws. At the summarized level, Briscoe’s season would be an A+. However, his inconsistent performances damper the grade a bit. Those inconsistencies need to vanish next season.

2023 Driver Outlook

With Kevin Harvick’s retirement potentially looming after 2023, Chase Briscoe needs to step up to be the powerhouse of Stewart-Haas Racing. After his 2022 season, there is hope for that to come true. Especially after his performance in the playoffs, Briscoe is lined up to lead SHR when the young drivers replace Harvick and Almirola. While one season is not equivalent to fully establishing oneself as the lead driver, it is a great start.

In 2023, Briscoe needs to follow up his sophomore rebound by taking the next step. Rattling off multiple wins would help solidify Briscoe in the upper tier of the Cup Series. Tyler Reddick had a strong third season where he scored three wins. Briscoe should look to do the same. In terms of an expectations, they can return a bit higher than they were this year. Be prepared to the see the #14 car in victory lane multiple times next season. A playoff berth can be stenciled into the 2023 plans as well. How far will Briscoe go in the playoffs? At least an appearance in the Round of Twelve. However, this team could potentially end up in the Championship Four.

Cole Custer – #41

2022 Stat Line: 36 Starts – 3 Top-10s, Avg Fin: 20.6, 1 Pole

Crew Chief: Mike Shiplett

Driver’s Points Ranking: 25; Owner’s Points Ranking: 25

Notable Results: Pole at Bristol Dirt; 8th at Bristol Night

It officially safe to say that Cole Custer is a Cup Series bust. Though he can rebound from the failure that was his initial run in Cup, the writing is on the wall. Custer is either not ready for the Cup Series or not talented enough. It is difficult to say that it is a talent issue. Though the Xfinity Series is not packed full of quality teams, any driver who can rack up seven wins in one season of NASCAR’s secondary series has some talent.

Nonetheless, Custer’s Cup Series career so far has been poor. 2022 was no exception: no wins, no Top-5s, and barely competitive for a Top-20 on a weekly basis. It was common to see Cole Custer racing with Ty Dillon and Harrison Burton. That is not what is expected out of Custer in SHR equipment. Despite the poor season, it was statistically an improvement over 2021. Custer led more laps, had one more Top-10, and more lead lap finishes. Although, he did have more DNFs this season by four. So, you win some, you lose some.

2022 Grade: F

Despite the performance issues that are ongoing at Stewart-Haas Racing, one of their cars should not be in weekly fights for a Top-20. Cole Custer simply failed this season (and his early Cup career). His 2022 season was so poor that Custer is getting demoted back to the Xfinity Series. If not for Custer’s father being president at SHR and Ford’s pitiful pipeline, Custer would have been sent packing from Stewart-Haas Racing entirely.

Cole Custer’s progression over his three year career saw him peak in his rookie season. During the pandemic affected season, Cole Custer was able to produce his best results. While those results were not great, it was a decent foundation to start his career. For whatever reason, Custer has not been able to develop from there. While his fellow rookies from the 2020 class flexed their talent this season, Custer got left behind. Custer’s grade for the 2022 season can be applied to his Cup Series career as a whole. He might have won Rookie of the Year, but Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell developed while Custer regressed.

2023 Driver Outlook

Ryan Preece will be taking Custer’s ride in the Cup Series. Stewart-Haas Racing will return to a two-car team in the Xfinity Series to keep Custer in the family. For Cole Custer, 2023 should be a revenge tour. In 2019, Custer racked up seven wins. Custer won a Xfinity race at Auto Club this season. Clearly, the man has talent behind the wheel of a Xfinity car. Custer will be a threat to the Xfinity Series Championship next season. He will be Ford’s best shot at it.

With Custer moving down to the Xfinity Series, it gives him a chance to reset and rebuild. He can also mentor Riley Herbst during his progression through the ranks. Custer’s failure does not have to define his Cup career. He can rebound and find his way back to the Cup Series. However, there is a sneaking suspicion that Custer is going to be Ford’s Justin Allgaier: a driver who cannot cut it in the Cup Series but is a championship contender in the secondary series.

Stewart-Haas Racing Grade: C

Stewart-Haas Racing’s 2023 did not qualm any worries for their fans. While Stewart-Haas Racing did have more speed in 2022, it was still a step behind where the team was in 2020. Something is amiss at SHR. Perhaps the financial impact from the pandemic hurt the team more than others. Maybe Tony Stewart is too distracted with the SRX and drag racing to be as hands on with the team. Whatever the reason is, they need to find consistency across the board.

Even with their two solid cars in 2022, inconsistent speed was prominent week in and week out. While Chase Briscoe and Kevin Harvick won races, they were not constant contenders. Aric Almirola seemed like an afterthought. Cole Custer was there. None of these things spell out a top tier organization. SHR has fallen behind Hendrick, Joe Gibbs, and Team Penske.

Heading into 2023, there will hopefully be more answers to the outstanding questions. If Ryan Preece runs better than Custer, then it will resolve that Custer was the problem in the #41 car. With the changes coming to the Next Gen car this offseason, more consistency from Harvick and his team could answer any questions around that team. Chase Briscoe needs to be the answer for the long term future of the organization. 2023 is an important year for SHR. With RFK and Front Row Motorsports on the rise, SHR could find themselves on the lower end of the Ford totem pole.

2022 Season in Review Previous articles:

JTG-Daugherty – Robert Cwick

2022 Cup Series Statistical Driver Review: Part 1 – Daniel Smith

Team Penske – Griffin Fuller

Wood Brothers Racing – Griffin Fuller

2022 Cup Series Statistical Driver Review: Part 2 – Daniel Smith

LiveFast – Robert Cwick

2022 Cup Series Statistical Driver Review: Part 3 – Daniel Smith

Front Row Motorsports – Robert Cwick

2022 Cup Series Statistical Driver Review: Part 4 – Daniel Smith