The Watermelon Man showed up at Nashville last weekend where he was able to pull off his first career pole and then a convincing win, his first of the season. This week we go to the Chicago Street Course for the first time ever, will it be a crap shoot or an unexpected great race? Either way I have picked 8 notable drivers to look at, 2 based on the 2023 point standings, 3 based on 2023 stats, and 3 based on Road Course stats. Here is a look at those 8 notable drivers 2023 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2023 and ranking through 17 races since the Chase started in 2004. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year, 2023 Road Course (right & left turns) statistics and nonexistent Chicago statistics.
1st in Points – Martin Truex Jr.
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 10.88 | 1st of 37 | 53rd of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.67% | 4th of 37 | 49th of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 77.39% | 3rd of 37 | 70th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 98.91 | 2nd of 37 | 74th of 780‡ |
| Wins | 2 | T3rd of 57 | T37th of 1226 |
| Poles | 1 | T5th of 57 | T66th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 3 | T4th of 57 | T60th of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 5 | T1st of 57 | T38th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 6 | T3rd of 57 | T67th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 9 | T4th of 57 | T93rd of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T5th of 37 | T127th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T9th of 57 | T63rd of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 22 | T3rd of 57 | T26th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 121 | 4th of 57 | 43rd of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 11 | 4th of 57 | 27th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes (active streak, tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (active streak, tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 9.0(T5th), 84.86% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 110.45(1st), Best 1st, Worst 17th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 27.57% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 1 Top 15, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 3.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his 2023 season stats. Truex was once again good at Nashville as he got his 2nd straight Top 2 finish, coming home 2nd. In addition to this being his 2nd straight Top 2 it was also his 4th straight Top 5, both of which are tied for the longest such streaks this year. Furthermore it was his 3rd Top 2 of the year, his series lead tying 5th Top 3, and 9th Top 10. This plus his only 1 DNF give him the best Avg. Finish this year at 10.88, which mixed with his 3rd best 77.39 Laps in Top15% give him the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating at 98.91. To further illustrate how good he’s been, all of his 2023 Ranks above, except his 1 Stage Win, are 5th or better. What’s even better for Truex, but worse for the competition, is that this week is a Road Course. In the 2 Road Course races this year he has a 9.0 Avg. Finish (T5th best) with a Win at Sonoma and a 17th place finish at the COTA disaster, but he does have the best Avg. Driver at 110.45. In addition to this he’s led 27.57% of his laps, ran 84.86% of his laps in the Top 15, and has gotten 3.25 Stage Pts Per Stage. All of this together says that Truex will have a good run this weekend and be one to reckon with all day, but this is a different type of course so I’ll play it safe and say that he gets a finish anywhere in the Top 10.
Martin Truex Jr. is notable because of his 2023 season stats. Truex was once again good at Nashville as he got his 2nd straight Top 2 finish, coming home 2nd. In addition to this being his 2nd straight Top 2 it was also his 4th straight Top 5, both of which are tied for the longest such streaks this year. Furthermore it was his 3rd Top 2 of the year, his series lead tying 5th Top 3, and 9th Top 10. This plus his only 1 DNF give him the best Avg. Finish this year at 10.88, which mixed with his 3rd best 77.39 Laps in Top15% give him the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating at 98.91. To further illustrate how good he’s been, all of his 2023 Ranks above, except his 1 Stage Win, are 5th or better. What’s even better for Truex, but worse for the competition, is that this week is a Road Course. In the 2 Road Course races this year he has a 9.0 Avg. Finish (T5th best) with a Win at Sonoma and a 17th place finish at the COTA disaster, but he does have the best Avg. Driver at 110.45. In addition to this he’s led 27.57% of his laps, ran 84.86% of his laps in the Top 15, and has gotten 3.25 Stage Pts Per Stage. All of this together says that Truex will have a good run this weekend and be one to reckon with all day, but this is a different type of course so I’ll play it safe and say that he gets a finish anywhere in the Top 10.
2nd in Points – William Byron
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.94 | T2nd of 37 | T73rd of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 98.26% | 13th of 37 | T185th of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 81.55% | 1st of 37 | 40th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 103.51 | 1st of 37 | 36th of 780‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T1st of 57 | T18th of 1226 |
| Poles | 2 | T1st of 57 | T28th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 4 | T2nd of 57 | T32nd of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 5 | T1st of 57 | T38th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 7 | T1st of 57 | T38th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 10 | T1st of 57 | T59th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T15th of 37 | T334th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 7 | 1st of 57 | 4th of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 25 | 1st of 57 | T7th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 179 | 1st of 57 | 7th of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 22 | 1st of 57 | T6th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Wins (longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 3 straight Top 3 finishes (longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes (longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 9.5(T7th), 80.0% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 103.25(4th), Best 5th, Worst 14th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 15.14% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
William Byron is notable because of the way he’s performed in the 2023 season. At Nashville Byron continued his great season by spending almost all race in the Top 10, finishing 6th. This was Byron’s 10th Top 10 on the year, tied for most by any driver, but this isn’t the only category in the 2023 Ranks above that he leads. As a matter of fact there are only 4 of 15 categories that he does not rank 1st in the 2023 Ranks above; they are his 11.94 Avg. Finish (ranks 2nd), 98.26 Completed Laps% (ranks 13th), 4 Top 2’s (ranks T2nd), and 2 DNF’s (ranks T15th). The best of the 1st place ranks may be his stage stats as his 7 Stage Wins, 25 Stage T10’s, and 179 Stage Pts all rank 7th or better in the Rank thru 17 Race column. In short, Byron has had the best season of anyone this year so far. Road Courses have been no exception to his good stats as in the 2 races this year Byron has a 9.5 Avg. Finish (T7th best) and a 103.25 Avg. Driver Rating (4th best) with a worst finish of 14th and a best of 5th. Furthermore he’s ran 80% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 15.14% of his laps, and has gotten 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage (tied with Michael McDowell for the best Stage Pts Per Stage on Road Courses). All in all if Byron does as well as his stats show then he will have a shot at the win and finish somewhere between 1st and 12th.
William Byron is notable because of the way he’s performed in the 2023 season. At Nashville Byron continued his great season by spending almost all race in the Top 10, finishing 6th. This was Byron’s 10th Top 10 on the year, tied for most by any driver, but this isn’t the only category in the 2023 Ranks above that he leads. As a matter of fact there are only 4 of 15 categories that he does not rank 1st in the 2023 Ranks above; they are his 11.94 Avg. Finish (ranks 2nd), 98.26 Completed Laps% (ranks 13th), 4 Top 2’s (ranks T2nd), and 2 DNF’s (ranks T15th). The best of the 1st place ranks may be his stage stats as his 7 Stage Wins, 25 Stage T10’s, and 179 Stage Pts all rank 7th or better in the Rank thru 17 Race column. In short, Byron has had the best season of anyone this year so far. Road Courses have been no exception to his good stats as in the 2 races this year Byron has a 9.5 Avg. Finish (T7th best) and a 103.25 Avg. Driver Rating (4th best) with a worst finish of 14th and a best of 5th. Furthermore he’s ran 80% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 15.14% of his laps, and has gotten 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage (tied with Michael McDowell for the best Stage Pts Per Stage on Road Courses). All in all if Byron does as well as his stats show then he will have a shot at the win and finish somewhere between 1st and 12th.
3rd in Points – Ross Chastain
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.12 | 8th of 37 | T114th of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.8% | T2nd of 37 | T26th of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 72.45% | 7th of 37 | 124th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 92.98 | 5th of 37 | 138th of 780‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T5th of 57 | T83rd of 1226 |
| Poles | 1 | T5th of 57 | T66th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T7th of 57 | T93rd of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 4 | T5th of 57 | T67th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 6 | T3rd of 57 | T67th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 8 | T6th of 57 | T140th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T5th of 37 | T127th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 5 | 2nd of 57 | T6th of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 23 | 2nd of 57 | T17th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 148 | 2nd of 57 | T16th of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 10 | 5th of 57 | T28th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 7.0(4th), 69.73% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 94.9(9th), Best 4th, Worst 10th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.54% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Ross Chastain is notable because he’s 3rd in points thru 17 races. Last week at Nashville Chastain broke his 42 race winless streak by pretty much dominating the weekend. In the weekend he got his 1st Win, 1st Pole (1st of his career as well), 2nd Top 2, 4th Top 3, 6th Top 5, and 8th Top 10. In addition he’s now ran 72.45% of his laps in the Top 15 this year, and he now has 23 Stage T10’s leading to 148 Stage Pts. All of this gives him a 92.98 Avg. Driver Rating this year and his finishes have him at a 13.12 Avg. Finish. This is the 8th best Avg. Finish in the 2023 Ranks above and is actually his worst ranking as all of his 2023 Ranks above are between 2nd and 8th. The bad news for Chastain is that his longest Top 10 streak this year is 2 races and he’s currently on a 2 race Top 10 streak. However, this could extend to 3 races based on his 2023 Road Course stats. In the 2 races Chastain has 2 Top 10’s with finishes of 4th and 10th leading to the 4th best Avg. Finish at 7.0. However, the races haven’t been all good as he’s only spent 70% of his laps in the Top 15, only led 0.54% of his laps, and has a 94.9 Avg. Driver Rating (only 9th best). In all Chastain’s momentum mixed with these stats could be a good omen for him this weekend, assuming he doesn’t get wreck that is. In the end I see him coming home with a solid Top 10 this weekend between 3rd and 8th.
Ross Chastain is notable because he’s 3rd in points thru 17 races. Last week at Nashville Chastain broke his 42 race winless streak by pretty much dominating the weekend. In the weekend he got his 1st Win, 1st Pole (1st of his career as well), 2nd Top 2, 4th Top 3, 6th Top 5, and 8th Top 10. In addition he’s now ran 72.45% of his laps in the Top 15 this year, and he now has 23 Stage T10’s leading to 148 Stage Pts. All of this gives him a 92.98 Avg. Driver Rating this year and his finishes have him at a 13.12 Avg. Finish. This is the 8th best Avg. Finish in the 2023 Ranks above and is actually his worst ranking as all of his 2023 Ranks above are between 2nd and 8th. The bad news for Chastain is that his longest Top 10 streak this year is 2 races and he’s currently on a 2 race Top 10 streak. However, this could extend to 3 races based on his 2023 Road Course stats. In the 2 races Chastain has 2 Top 10’s with finishes of 4th and 10th leading to the 4th best Avg. Finish at 7.0. However, the races haven’t been all good as he’s only spent 70% of his laps in the Top 15, only led 0.54% of his laps, and has a 94.9 Avg. Driver Rating (only 9th best). In all Chastain’s momentum mixed with these stats could be a good omen for him this weekend, assuming he doesn’t get wreck that is. In the end I see him coming home with a solid Top 10 this weekend between 3rd and 8th.
4th in Points – Christopher Bell
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.71 | 6th of 37 | T97th of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 95.13% | 29th of 37 | 421st of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 73.91% | T5th of 37 | T103rd of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 90.92 | 6th of 37 | T159th of 780‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T5th of 57 | T83rd of 1226 |
| Poles | 0 | T10th of 57 | T186th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T10th of 57 | T170th of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 3 | T8th of 57 | T107th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 5 | T5th of 57 | T100th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 10 | T1st of 57 | T59th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T24th of 37 | T544th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T17th of 57 | T96th of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 22 | T3rd of 57 | T26th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 105 | T5th of 57 | T52nd of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 5 | T10th of 57 | T57th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 3 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 20.0(T19th), 85.25% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 89.1(11th), Best 9th, Worst 31st, Laps Completed 98.92%, Led 0.55% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 1 Top 15, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 3.0 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Christopher Bell is notable because he is 4th in points. At Nashville Bell was on the move from the wave of the green flag and despite starting 22nd spent almost all day in the Top 10, finishing 7th. This was Bell’s 10th Top 10 of the year (ranks T1st) and it improved his Avg. Finish to 12.71 (6th best). In terms of the race as a whole it improved his Avg. Driver Rating to 90.92 (6th best) and his Laps in Top15% to 73.91. In addition to these stats he has 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 22 Stage T10’s, and 105 Stage Pts this year. However the three glaring weaknesses in his 2023 stats above are his 95.13 Completed Laps% (ranks 29th), his 3 DNF’s (ranks T24th), and his 0 Stage Wins (ranks T17th). The news only gets worse when looking at Bell’s 2023 Road Course stats as he has a 20.0 Avg. Finish (ranks T19th) and an 89.11 Avg. Driver Rating (ranks 11th). In addition he’s only led 0.55% of his laps this year and has a worst finish of 31st, but that 31st was a DNF part of the COTA crapfest at the end of the race. To show just how well he’s ran in the 2 races he’s ran 85% of his laps in the Top 15. However, in total I just don’t see the stats saying Bell will be a contender this weekend and I think he ends up finishing somewhere between 8th and 28th.
Christopher Bell is notable because he is 4th in points. At Nashville Bell was on the move from the wave of the green flag and despite starting 22nd spent almost all day in the Top 10, finishing 7th. This was Bell’s 10th Top 10 of the year (ranks T1st) and it improved his Avg. Finish to 12.71 (6th best). In terms of the race as a whole it improved his Avg. Driver Rating to 90.92 (6th best) and his Laps in Top15% to 73.91. In addition to these stats he has 3 Top 3’s, 5 Top 5’s, 22 Stage T10’s, and 105 Stage Pts this year. However the three glaring weaknesses in his 2023 stats above are his 95.13 Completed Laps% (ranks 29th), his 3 DNF’s (ranks T24th), and his 0 Stage Wins (ranks T17th). The news only gets worse when looking at Bell’s 2023 Road Course stats as he has a 20.0 Avg. Finish (ranks T19th) and an 89.11 Avg. Driver Rating (ranks 11th). In addition he’s only led 0.55% of his laps this year and has a worst finish of 31st, but that 31st was a DNF part of the COTA crapfest at the end of the race. To show just how well he’s ran in the 2 races he’s ran 85% of his laps in the Top 15. However, in total I just don’t see the stats saying Bell will be a contender this weekend and I think he ends up finishing somewhere between 8th and 28th.
5th in Points – Kyle Busch
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.94 | T2nd of 37 | T73rd of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.32% | 19th of 37 | 256th of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 65.19% | 11th of 37 | 179th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 90.64 | 7th of 37 | 163rd of 780‡ |
| Wins | 3 | T1st of 57 | T18th of 1226 |
| Poles | 1 | T5th of 57 | T66th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 5 | 1st of 57 | T16th of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 5 | T1st of 57 | T38th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 5 | T5th of 57 | T100th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 10 | T1st of 57 | T59th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 3 | T24th of 37 | T544th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 2 | T5th of 57 | T37th of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 15 | T10th of 57 | T74th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 90 | 10th of 57 | 68th of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 17 | 2nd of 57 | 13th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 2 finishes (tied longest streak in Cup Series this year)
- 5 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak, longest active streak in Cup Series)
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 2.0(1st), 84.32% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 106.55(2nd), Best 2nd, Worst 2nd, Laps Completed 100%, Led 9.19% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Kyle Busch is notable because of of his Road Course stats in 2023. At Nashville Busch had an up and down day as he ran only 50% of his laps in the Top 15 en route to a 9th place finish. This was Busch’s 5th straight Top 10 (longest active streak) and his 10th Top 10 on the year (tied for most this year). On the year he has an 11.94 Avg. Finish (ranks T2nd) and a 90.64 Avg. Driver Rating (ranks 7th). However, his 2023 season stats (and 2023 Ranks) are about as up and down as his Nashville race. His best 2023 Ranks above are his 3 Wins, 5 Top 2’s, 5 Top 3’s, and 10 Top 10’s that all rank 1st or T1st, but his worst rank is his 3 DNF’s (ranks T24th). In fact 5 of his 15 2023 Ranks are 10th or worst including his 15 Stage T10’s and 90 Stage Pts. This up and down scenario is not the case for Busch at Road Courses this year as in the 2 races he’s finished 2nd both times, and he has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating at 106.55. Moreover he’s spent 84.32% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 9.19% of his laps, 1 Stage Win, 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage, and he’s the only driver to have 2 Top 5’s in the 2 Road Course races this year. All of this makes me believe Busch will be a contender this weekend and finish either 1st, 2nd, 6th-10th, or outside the Top 20 altogether.
Kyle Busch is notable because of of his Road Course stats in 2023. At Nashville Busch had an up and down day as he ran only 50% of his laps in the Top 15 en route to a 9th place finish. This was Busch’s 5th straight Top 10 (longest active streak) and his 10th Top 10 on the year (tied for most this year). On the year he has an 11.94 Avg. Finish (ranks T2nd) and a 90.64 Avg. Driver Rating (ranks 7th). However, his 2023 season stats (and 2023 Ranks) are about as up and down as his Nashville race. His best 2023 Ranks above are his 3 Wins, 5 Top 2’s, 5 Top 3’s, and 10 Top 10’s that all rank 1st or T1st, but his worst rank is his 3 DNF’s (ranks T24th). In fact 5 of his 15 2023 Ranks are 10th or worst including his 15 Stage T10’s and 90 Stage Pts. This up and down scenario is not the case for Busch at Road Courses this year as in the 2 races he’s finished 2nd both times, and he has the 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating at 106.55. Moreover he’s spent 84.32% of his laps in the Top 15, has led 9.19% of his laps, 1 Stage Win, 3.5 Stage Pts Per Stage, and he’s the only driver to have 2 Top 5’s in the 2 Road Course races this year. All of this makes me believe Busch will be a contender this weekend and finish either 1st, 2nd, 6th-10th, or outside the Top 20 altogether.
7th in Points – Denny Hamlin
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 13.88 | 9th of 37 | T139th of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 94.93% | 30th of 37 | T432nd of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 80.81% | 2nd of 37 | 45th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 96.74 | 3rd of 37 | 90th of 780‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T5th of 57 | T83rd of 1226 |
| Poles | 2 | T1st of 57 | T28th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | T7th of 57 | T93rd of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 3 | T8th of 57 | T107th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 5 | T5th of 57 | T100th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 7 | T9th of 57 | T189th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T15th of 37 | T334th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 4 | 3rd of 57 | T12th of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 22 | T3rd of 57 | T26th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 138 | 3rd of 57 | 23rd of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 9 | 6th of 57 | T33rd of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 26.0(T30th), 57.49% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 82.15(13th), Best 16th, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 90.27%, Led 19.76% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 1 Pole, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 0 Top 10’s, 0 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Denny Hamlin is notable because of how he’s run in the 2023 season. At Nashville Hamlin was one of the better cars all race as he led 81 laps and finished 3rd. This was only Hamlin’s 3rd Top 3 of the year (T8th most) and 7th Top 10 (T9th most), but was also his 5th Top 5 (T5th most). Overall he has just a 13.88 Avg. Finish (9th best), but he does have a 96.74 Avg. Driver Rating (3rd best) and has ran 80.81% of his laps in the Top 15 (2nd best). In addition to these good stats his stages are are also pretty good as he has 4 Stage Wins, 22 Stage T10’s, and 138 Stage Pts; all of which rank 3rd or T3rd most on the year. That’s where the good news stops as Road Courses have not been kind to Hamlin this year. In the 2 races he has a 26.0 Avg. Finish with finishes of 16th and 36th, but to be fair he was running well at Sonoma before he hit a wall trying to make turn 12. Still, his Avg. Finish is only T30th best, his 82.15 Avg. Driver Rating is 13th best, he’s only ran 57.49% of his laps in the Top 15, and he’s gotten just 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage. Based on this I see this weekend at Chicago being a struggle for Hamlin as he hasn’t done well on Road Courses and thus I see him finishing outside the Top 15.
Denny Hamlin is notable because of how he’s run in the 2023 season. At Nashville Hamlin was one of the better cars all race as he led 81 laps and finished 3rd. This was only Hamlin’s 3rd Top 3 of the year (T8th most) and 7th Top 10 (T9th most), but was also his 5th Top 5 (T5th most). Overall he has just a 13.88 Avg. Finish (9th best), but he does have a 96.74 Avg. Driver Rating (3rd best) and has ran 80.81% of his laps in the Top 15 (2nd best). In addition to these good stats his stages are are also pretty good as he has 4 Stage Wins, 22 Stage T10’s, and 138 Stage Pts; all of which rank 3rd or T3rd most on the year. That’s where the good news stops as Road Courses have not been kind to Hamlin this year. In the 2 races he has a 26.0 Avg. Finish with finishes of 16th and 36th, but to be fair he was running well at Sonoma before he hit a wall trying to make turn 12. Still, his Avg. Finish is only T30th best, his 82.15 Avg. Driver Rating is 13th best, he’s only ran 57.49% of his laps in the Top 15, and he’s gotten just 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage. Based on this I see this weekend at Chicago being a struggle for Hamlin as he hasn’t done well on Road Courses and thus I see him finishing outside the Top 15.
20th in Points – Michael McDowell
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 20.06 | 24th of 37 | 423rd of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 97.48% | 18th of 37 | 244th of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 25.63% | 23rd of 37 | 446th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 61.86 | 24th of 37 | 480th of 780‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T12th of 57 | T200th of 1226 |
| Poles | 0 | T10th of 57 | T186th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T16th of 57 | T301st of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T19th of 57 | T375th of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T23rd of 57 | T477th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 3 | T22nd of 57 | T390th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T5th of 37 | T127th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T17th of 57 | T96th of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 5 | T24th of 57 | T144th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 32 | T22nd of 57 | T129th of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T19th of 57 | T108th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 2 Races, Avg. Finish 9.5(T7th), 86.49% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 99.85(5th), Best 7th, Worst 12th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 0.54% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 0 Top 5’s, 1 Top 10, 2 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Michael McDowell is notable because of the way he’s ran on Road Courses in 2023. McDowell, and FRM as a whole, stunk last week as neither driver ran a lap in the Top 15, McDowell’s Driver Rating was tied for 6th worst, and he finished the race in 28th. This race hurt his Avg. Finish as it now sits at 20.06 and his Avg. Driver Rating as well as it now sits at 61.86, both rank 24th best this year. Furthermore he’s only ran 25.63% of his laps in the Top 15, has 0 Top 5’s, and only has 3 Top 10’s in the 17 races. Stages haven’t been that great either as he has just 5 Stage T10’s and only 32 Stage Pts. To further show his struggles this year McDowell’s only 2023 Rank above better than 10th is his 1 DNF which sits T5th best. However, Road Courses are a different story as in the 2 races he has a 9.5 Avg. Finish (T7th best), a 99.85 Avg. Driver Rating (5th best), 1 Top 10, and 2 Top 15’s. Furthermore his 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage on Road Courses this year is tied for the best, and he’s ran 86.49% of his laps in the Top 15. Even better is that McDowell is one of the few drivers to have Street Course experience, but never in a NASCAR car. However, based on his Road Course prowess I see a much needed good weekend in store for McDowell at Chicago. In fact if he can avoid trouble, a big if, then I think he could challenge for the win, and will finish somewhere between 1st and 7th.
Michael McDowell is notable because of the way he’s ran on Road Courses in 2023. McDowell, and FRM as a whole, stunk last week as neither driver ran a lap in the Top 15, McDowell’s Driver Rating was tied for 6th worst, and he finished the race in 28th. This race hurt his Avg. Finish as it now sits at 20.06 and his Avg. Driver Rating as well as it now sits at 61.86, both rank 24th best this year. Furthermore he’s only ran 25.63% of his laps in the Top 15, has 0 Top 5’s, and only has 3 Top 10’s in the 17 races. Stages haven’t been that great either as he has just 5 Stage T10’s and only 32 Stage Pts. To further show his struggles this year McDowell’s only 2023 Rank above better than 10th is his 1 DNF which sits T5th best. However, Road Courses are a different story as in the 2 races he has a 9.5 Avg. Finish (T7th best), a 99.85 Avg. Driver Rating (5th best), 1 Top 10, and 2 Top 15’s. Furthermore his 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage on Road Courses this year is tied for the best, and he’s ran 86.49% of his laps in the Top 15. Even better is that McDowell is one of the few drivers to have Street Course experience, but never in a NASCAR car. However, based on his Road Course prowess I see a much needed good weekend in store for McDowell at Chicago. In fact if he can avoid trouble, a big if, then I think he could challenge for the win, and will finish somewhere between 1st and 7th.
25th in Points – Chase Elliott
| Category | Statistic | 2023 Rank | ªRank Thru 17 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 12.6 | 5th of 37 | 93rd of 822 |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 88.88% | 34th of 37 | 694th of 822 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 63.09% | 12th of 37 | 194th of 780‡ |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 82.69 | 12th of 37 | 251st of 780‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T12th of 57 | T200th of 1226 |
| Poles | 0 | T10th of 57 | T186th of 1226 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T10th of 57 | T170th of 1226 |
| Top 3’s | 2 | T11th of 57 | T162nd of 1226 |
| Top 5’s | 4 | T10th of 57 | T149th of 1226 |
| Top 10’s | 6 | T13th of 57 | T238th of 1226 |
| DNF’s¹ | 2 | T15th of 37 | T334th of 822 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T9th of 57 | T63rd of 393* |
| Stage T10s | 7 | T18th of 57 | T128th of 393* |
| Stage Pts | 35 | 20th of 57 | T125th of 393* |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T12th of 57 | T86th of 393* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2004
¹Ranks of drivers to start 40% of races thru 17 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Loop Data started in 2005, max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes (active streak)
- 2023 Road Course Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Road Course start, 43 drivers)
- 1 Race, Avg. Finish 5.0(2nd), 93.64% of Laps ran in Top15, Avg. Driver Rating 99.4(6th), Best 5th, Worst 5th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 6.36% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 1 Top 15, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 0 Stage Wins, 0 Stage T10’s
- Chicago Street Course Statistics
- This is the first Cup race at the Chicago Street Course
- Notable Chicago Statistics (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Chicago, 0 drivers)
- 0 Races
Outlook
Chase Elliott is notable because of his stats in his 1 Road Course race this year. Last week Elliott got his 2nd straight Top 5 finish as he finished 4th. This now has Elliott at the 5th best Avg. Finish in the 2023 Ranks above at 12.6. However the rest of his stats aren’t as good as his 63.09 Laps in Top 15% and 82.69 Avg. Driver Rating are only 12th best. In addition he has the same amount of Top 3’s as he does DNF’s (2), but he does have 6 Top 10’s in his 10 races this year. The stages have been even worse for him as he has only 7 Stage T10’s and 35 Stage Pts in his 21 stages run. In terms of Road Courses Elliott has only ran 1 Road Course race this year and in that race he finished 5th, ran 93.64% of his laps in the Top 15, had a 99.4 Driver Rating, and led 6.36% of his laps, but he also got 0 Stage T10’s. With that being all the data we have on Elliott this year that makes this outlook for him at Chicago a bit of a guess, but with how good he is on Road Courses I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in victory lane. In general I think he finishes somewhere between 1st and 8th with 7+ Stage Pts earned.
Chase Elliott is notable because of his stats in his 1 Road Course race this year. Last week Elliott got his 2nd straight Top 5 finish as he finished 4th. This now has Elliott at the 5th best Avg. Finish in the 2023 Ranks above at 12.6. However the rest of his stats aren’t as good as his 63.09 Laps in Top 15% and 82.69 Avg. Driver Rating are only 12th best. In addition he has the same amount of Top 3’s as he does DNF’s (2), but he does have 6 Top 10’s in his 10 races this year. The stages have been even worse for him as he has only 7 Stage T10’s and 35 Stage Pts in his 21 stages run. In terms of Road Courses Elliott has only ran 1 Road Course race this year and in that race he finished 5th, ran 93.64% of his laps in the Top 15, had a 99.4 Driver Rating, and led 6.36% of his laps, but he also got 0 Stage T10’s. With that being all the data we have on Elliott this year that makes this outlook for him at Chicago a bit of a guess, but with how good he is on Road Courses I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in victory lane. In general I think he finishes somewhere between 1st and 8th with 7+ Stage Pts earned.
