From Las Vegas, the NASCAR Cup Series heads out to Phoenix to finish up a quick 2-race west coast swing. After the first “real” race of 2024, there is plenty of unknowns still left for fans to ponder. While it has been all Chevy in the beginning, will the new bodies for Toyota and Ford start making up that gap as the season progresses? As for this weekend, can NASCAR figure out how to host compelling races on short tracks? While Phoenix Raceway is not the standard short track, NASCAR will debut the new short track package this weekend. Hopefully, that leads to more compelling racing. With all these storylines heading into Sunday, who should be the drivers to watch for the Shriner Children’s 500?
Spring Phoenix will serve as the preview for the championship race at the end of the season. Last spring, all of the Championship Four drivers finished in the Top-6. A late caution deprived Kevin Harvick of arguably his best chance at a win during his retirement tour. Instead, William Byron went back-to-back to start his career season. Kyle Larson has a Phoenix win to his name. Will fans see two straight years of back-to-back west coast wins? Phoenix will offer more insight into how the remainder of the season will play out. Who should you keep an eye on during the Shriner Children’s 500? Here are the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Ryan Blaney
Eventually, Ryan Blaney has to pick up a win at Phoenix Raceway. Despite winning the championship last Phoenix race, Blaney was unable to get around Ross Chastain for the race win. However, the second place finish extended his Top-5 streak at the track to 5. Blaney’s past 3 Phoenix races have seen him finish second. With how close Blaney has come to picking up a Phoenix win, this year feels like the year he will get it done.
Outside of Daytona, every Cup race Blaney has started this season has seen him finish in the Top-3. After using a provisional to get to the main event, Blaney placed on the podium at The Clash. Blaney was .003 seconds short of claiming victory at Atlanta. Last week, Blaney was the top Ford in the field and brought home the 12 car in third. The positive momentum of his 2024 start points to a race win soon. This Sunday’s Shriner Children’s 500 will see a hard charging Blaney hunting for a win.
Ty Gibbs
When everyone is NASCAR media is expecting a breakout season, the pressure could get to young driver. However, Ty Gibbs has been able to handle it thus far in the season. Gibbs currently sits ninth in points while coming off of back-to-back Top-10s. Not only are the results better, Gibbs is starting to show some of that Xfinity Series edge that made him so hated. Numerous times at Las Vegas, Gibbs was making bold moves and blocks on veteran drivers that was absent from his style last year. Clearly, the young driver is getting more confident at the Cup Series level.
With that said, Phoenix Raceway has not been kind to Ty Gibbs in the Cup Series. While he picked up the Xfinity Championship Race win in 2022, Gibbs’ first 2 Cup starts at the track have been underwhelming. Both races saw the 54 car finish outside the Top-20. However, Gibbs never finished outside the Top-6 in his Xfinity career at the track. His new found Cup confidence might boost his performance this weekend. While Gibbs would be a longshot for the win, this race will be a good measuring stick to see how much Gibbs has improved from last year.
Chris Buescher
Tough luck has followed Chris Buescher throughout the 2024 season thus far. In each of the first 3 races, Buescher has found himself in an incident that was not of his own doing. Last week at Las Vegas, Buescher’s front tire changer failed to secure the right front tire. This resulted in the tire coming off and the 17 car slamming into the wall. Usually, the trip to Phoenix would be dreaded by the Prosper, Texas native. However, Buescher’s feelings toward the track has changed in recent history.
Since Roush-Fenway turned to RFK Racing, Chris Buescher’s performances at Phoenix Raceway have improved greatly. His average finish jumped from 23.75 in his first 12 starts to 12.75 in his last 4. The best of those runs came last time the Cup Series visited Phoenix. In the Championship Race, Buescher won Stage 2 and looked to have the car to beat. A slow pit stop spoiled the fun, but Buescher recovered to finish in the Top-5. Since Brad Keselowski joined the ownership group, the short track circuit has been a strength for RFK and Buescher. In need of a strong run, watch out for Chris Buescher to be race winning contender.
Ross Chastain
Since joining Trackhouse Racing, Ross Chastain has been dominant at Phoenix. In his 4 starts in the 1 car, Chastain has 3 Top-5s. The only reason why that is not for 4-for-4 is because Denny Hamlin decided ruining the Melon Man’s day was top priority last spring. Chastain made history last time at Phoenix, becoming the first Cup Series driver to win the Championship Race who was not in the Championship Four. Sure, he had to ruffle Ryan Blaney’s feathers to do it. But a win is a win.
Based on his recent stretch of strong runs, there is no reason to expect Chastain to be anywhere other than the Top-5 Sunday. However, Chastain needs to fix an issue that has already bitten him throughout the season: speeding on pit road. In the past 2 races, Chastain has been penalized for speeding on pit road. While Chastain was able to recover last week for a Top-5, his race day could be a lot easier if he can avoid starting a restart from back of the field. Outside of Hendrick Motorsports, Chastain should be the favorite from the Chevy camp to win the Shriner Children’s 500.
Josh Berry
Josh Berry’s rookie season has not gotten off to the best start. After missing the main event for The Clash, Berry has followed it with 3 straight results outside the Top-15. Obviously, it is still too early to panic. However, better results need to be on the horizon to keep Berry competitive for the 2024 season. What better place to be next on the schedule for the 4 team than Phoenix. While Kevin Harvick’s Phoenix prowess predates his time with Stewart-Haas Racing, it cannot be ignored how well the 4 team has been in the desert. Surely, Rodney Childers and crew can help pass down some tips and tricks that allowed Harvick to have so much success at Phoenix.
This will not be Berry’s first time in Cup Series action at Phoenix Raceway. Last year, Berry filled in for the 9 team while Chase Elliott recovered from his leg injury. This was part of the stretch of races that turned Berry into a hot name in silly season. Berry brought home the 9 car with a Top-10 in his second start for the team. With Berry’s roots in short track racing, it made sense that he would run well at Phoenix (in top equipment). From what Noah Gragson has done thus far in the season, there is no reason to think why Josh Berry cannot have a Top-10 run in the Shriner Children’s 500.
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