Time for another superspeedway spectacle this weekend. The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Alabama to race at Talladega Superspeedway. After the last superspeedway race left fans enthralled with an exciting three-wide finish, expectations are high for the GEICO 500. This will also be the last superspeedway race until late August. For those drivers who bank on strong runs at superspeedways, this will be their last crack at it until desperation mode kicks in. Talladega will be about survival, with the only question being whether to run ahead or behind the carnage. A weekend where almost anyone can win, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch?
After a quarter of the season has passed, Ford still sits winless. With their bread and butter being the superspeedways, one would imagine this race is circled on each Ford team’s calendar. Worry is abound from Ford fans about their lack of wins (and competitiveness) thus far. Will a Talladega win really quell those concerns? Maybe, especially considering there are two superspeedways in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 2024 season has been the Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports show. Only Daniel Suarez has upset that apple cart when he won at Atlanta. Will Talladega disappoint with a Hendrick or Gibbs win? Could an underdog reign supreme on Sunday? Most importantly, who are the drivers you need to keep an eye on at Talladega?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Denny Hamlin
If there was a Joe Gibbs Racing driver to win this weekend, the best bet would be Denny Hamlin. Out of the four, he is the only one with a Cup Series superspeedway win. In his career, Hamlin has collected 2 wins at Talladega. Despite his success at Talladega (and superspeedways), the 11 driver has yet to find victory lane at this type of track in the NextGen car. Hamlin still demonstrates his superior drafting prowess, but it has not netted him a win. Could this weekend be his first in the NextGen era?
While this season has been a success thus far for Hamlin, his results are a bit all or nothing. Outside of his 2 wins, Hamlin only has one other Top-10 (Las Vegas). Once again, this is not indicative of how well he has been running. Hamlin is the only driver to have led at least one lap in each race. In fact, Hamlin has led double digit laps in all but one race (COTA). Fans should expect to see more of the same from Hamlin this weekend. Based on his recent superspeedway races, expect Hamlin to run for stage points then back off during the early portions of the final stage. Hamlin has been able to drive forward when it matters. Even if he is running 20th with the laps dwindling down, he is still a contender. While superspeedways can be chaotic, a good Hamlin finish almost feels like a guarantee this weekend.
Justin Haley
As mentioned in the introduction, Ford could use a win to quiet some of the worry about their season. While a Talladega win might not quell all fears, a single Atlanta win last year through this point of the season kept people calm. Ford have a plethora of quality superspeedway drivers who could get the job done. As per usual arrangement, Justin Haley’s name will be floated as an underdog to watch. Haley has a knack on the superspeedways, especially looking at his Xfinity Series career. Sure, his Coke Zero 400 win was due to rain but he has continued to show strength at the drafting tracks in Cup.
During the Daytona 500, Haley was a featured driver during Stage 2. He was drafting with the leader at the time and looked fit to be there. Unfortunately, mechanical trouble spoiled any chances of a good finish for Haley. Truly, that is the main thing that could stop Haley from being there at the end. He is a respected drafter and other drivers will be willing to work with him. However, the equipment is the question mark. Can Rick Ware Racing keep the car under Haley through the end of the race? If so, Haley could be the upset of the weekend. Imagine if Haley wins and locks Rick Ware Racing into the playoffs.
Ross Chastain
A former winner of the GEICO 500, Ross Chastain is coming off a frustrating end from the Texas race. After losing out on a potential win, William Byron’s bulldozer drover through the 1 car and wrecked Chastain on the backstretch. The usually collected Chastain respectfully blew off interviews after the race, looking noticeably peeved at what happened. Could that frustration boil over into Sunday’s race?
Well, Talladega is not exactly the ideal track to take frustrations out on other drivers. However, there is a history of it occurring so it is possible. Realistically, the main form of revenge Chastain might take on Byron this weekend would be leaving him out of the draft in a key moment.
As for Chastain’s chance in the GEICO 500, the Melon Man has been competitive at the superspeedways. During the Daytona 500, Chastain was in the mix until he spun out making a move for the win. At Atlanta, Chastain was in the second row of three-wide action coming to the finish line. Chastain might not be the first name to come to mind for superspeedway favorite, but he should be considered better than an outside shot. The key for Chastain will be surviving until the end, which he failed to do the last time the Cup Series was at Talladega. Chastain’s aggressive driving could find him in the garage early or hoisting up the trophy. It should be fun to watch either way.
Shane van Gisbergen
Shane van Gisbergen is one to watch this weekend simply for how good that Wendy’s paint scheme is. Look at it over there.
However, there is intrigue to watching Gisbergen’s first Cup Series outing on the superspeedway. This is going to be a key part of his NASCAR development, especially if Trackhouse is looking to put him in a Cup car next season.
In his 2 Xfinity starts on superspeedways, Shane van Gisbergen has done admirably. After taking some damage at Daytona, Gisbergen managed to pilot his 97 car to a 12th place finish. At Atlanta, the New Zealander picked up his first Xfinity Top-5 with a podium finish. So far, solid results for the newbie on the superspeedways. However, Cup and the NextGen car have distinct differences to the Xfinity Series. How will Shane van Gisbergen handle the Cup draft? With a higher level of competition, will Gisbergen hold his own or get lost in the shuffle?
In addition to the differences between Cup and Xfinity, Talladega race differently than both Daytona and Atlanta. For Trackhouse, it was wise to give Gisbergen’s first Cup superspeedway start at the widest of the three tracks. Plus, he did not have to sweat running 3 races to kick off the 2024 season. Both Trackhouse and fans alike will be evaluating Gisbergen’s performance on Sunday. While no one should be expecting a Top-10 run, a successful day will be if Gisbergen maintains the lead draft throughout the race and races for a Top-20.
Chase Briscoe
As mentioned briefly in this week’s Power Rankings, Chase Briscoe has quietly been putting together a bounce back season. Through the first quarter of 2024, Briscoe sits 12th in points with 4 Top-10s and an average finish of 14.6. If he keeps this pace up, Briscoe would better his average finish from last year by 5.7 positions. As some expected, Briscoe has been the heading up the Stewart-Haas resurgence. With how Briscoe has run this season, it would be not a fluke for the 14 team to emerge victorious this weekend.
The Fords have speed on the superspeedways. Daytona and Atlanta demonstrated that Ford muscle. Plus, the last time the Cup Series was at Talladega, Ryan Blaney won the race by barely beating Kevin Harvick. For the moment, this weekend might be SHR’s best shot at picking up a win. Chase Briscoe is a solid superspeedway racer. While he would not be considered as one of the elites, he usually finds himself near the front when these races are wrapping up. Especially at Talladega, where Briscoe only has 1 DNF and his worst non-DNF finish is 14th. From the Ford camp, the focus might be on the Team Penske and RFK Racing drivers. However, do not sleep on Briscoe and the SHR drivers.
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