Who can tame the Monster Mile? The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Delaware to take on Dover Motor Speedway. After the chaos of Talladega, Dover will offer a different style of racing. A larger version of Bristol, the concrete track in Delaware can be treacherous for drivers. Exiting Turn 2, the outside wall approaches quickly. Dover is a track that tests machine and man throughout the 400 miles. With Miles watching over the track, who will get the better of the other 36 competitors this weekend? Which driver gets to bring home the best trophy on the circuit? For the Wurth 400, who are will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch?
10 races down, 16 to go before the playoffs start. The field is starting to take shape, as the cutline becomes more defined. Currently, there is a tie for the last spot in on points. However, the coming months will certainly help alter the standings. Toyota and Chevy have hogged all the wins this season. Really, it is Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing lofting over the field. However, summer slumps have been common for drivers from these teams. Maybe that could start this weekend in Dover. Plus, Dover Motor Speedway can be the scene of some frustrations boiling over. Will the Wurth 400 offer some rivalry development or spark new ones? Maybe, but make sure to keep an eye on the following 5 drivers below.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Christopher Bell
After getting off to another strong start this season, Christopher Bell has hit a rough patch over the past three races. Since Martinsville, Bell has been involved in an on-track incident each week. While Texas saw the 20 team patch the car up enough to keep Bell competitive, Martinsville and Talladega netted Bell finishes in the 30s. While he has already collected a win this season, Bell’s slide down the points could hurt his positioning come playoff time. Bell will look to break that streak this weekend at Dover.
Prior to the NextGen, Dover would not be a welcome sign for Christopher Bell. In his first 3 starts at the Monster Mile, Bell averaged a 23.3 average finish and failed to finish on the lead lap each race. Since the NextGen, Bell has back-to-back Top-10s at Dover, including a Top-5 in 2022. With the speed of the Toyotas, the 20 car should be running upfront throughout the Wurth 400. However, speed has not been the issue for the 20 team. Instead, bad luck has been striking them. If Bell can avoid any incidents, Sunday should set up nicely for a solid day.
Corey Heim
Due to a broken back after his Talladega wreck, Erik Jones will be out of the 43 car this weekend. According to Jones, he will take it week by week to determine when he will return to the Cup Series. For this weekend, Corey Heim will be filling in for Legacy Motor Club. Signed as the reserve driver for Legacy and 23XI Racing, Heim will be making his Cup Series debut at Dover. While it is a significant moment for the young driver’s career, it is a shame that it comes due to a back injury to Jones.
As with any fill-in role, expectations should be kept modest for Corey Heim this weekend. He has never driven the NextGen car. Plus, Dover Motor Speedway is a tough place to be thrown into the Cup Series. Heim only has limited experience at the track to begin with, only having 2 national series starts. Last season, Heim drove the Sam Hunt Racing #26 entry at Dover. Heim only spent 1 lap inside the Top-15 and had a sour engine put him behind the wall. Meanwhile, he did secure a Top-10 in the ARCA East Series back in 2020.
While dawning the Petty blue colors, expect Corey Heim to struggle this weekend. He is a talented driver, but the combination of limited experience at Dover and in the NextGen car will be daunting. Finishing the race with the car in one piece will be considered a successful day.
Alex Bowman
When it comes to Dover Motor Speedway, few drivers have tamed the Monster Mile quite the same way Alex Bowman has. Simply put, Bowman has been a thriving force at this track. Bowman has a Top-5 in 5 of his past 6 starts at Dover, including a win in 2021. Although he missed last year’s event due to his injury, his one NextGen start at the track saw Bowman lead a couple of laps and finish fifth. With Bowman finding his groove this season, there is no reason to expect the Hendrick driver to have a bad day on Sunday.
Alex Bowman is the one Hendrick Motorsports driver who has yet to win a race this season. Outside of the Daytona 500, Bowman also has not been too close to finding victory lane either. However, Dover might be the spot for his first win since 2022. With how well the Hendrick cars have looked this season, the quartet should have some representation at the front. Chase Elliott won the first NextGen race at the track, so it would be logical to expect another Hendrick win this weekend. Based on how well he drives at Dover, Bowman would be the smart bet. While his teammates might have more favored odds, expect Alex Bowman to contend for his second Dover win.
Noah Gragson
After finishing third last week, Noah Gragson will look to continue his impressive sophomore season at Dover. While Gragson’s statistics are not overwhelming, it is a considerable improvement from his rookie season. Gragson has looked better than expected, putting the 10 car around the Top-10 most weeks. For the somewhat risky decision it was to bring in Gragson, the young driver is rewarding Stewart-Haas Racing with quality runs. Can he sustain the early success with a solid run at Dover?
Well, he will not have much Cup Series experience to fall back on. Last year, Gragson wrecked out of the race after 40 laps. When reviewing his time in the Xfinity Series, it illustrates solid but unremarkable results. Gragson did not win a race at the Monster Mile and he only netted 2 Top-5s in 7 starts. This is not to say that Gragson will be lost in the shuffle on Sunday. However, the intrigue from watching Gragson will be if he can keep the 10 car around the Top-10. Some of his results from this season do not reflect how well Gragson ran in the race. While a win is doubtful, Noah Gragson should be able to break through to the Top-10.
Jimmie Johnson
Even for those who were never Jimmie Johnson fans, his part time starts in the 84 car must be sad to watch. One of the greatest drivers of all-time now fights to keep his car underneath him. Clearly, Johnson is struggling with the NextGen car. 20 minutes worth of practice on his spot starts are not enough to get him comfortable with the new car. In his 5 starts, Johnson has only finished 2 races and only once on the lead lap (Texas). That lead lap finish was only the result of a caution heavy race too.
Hopefully, Johnson can rediscover some of his Hall of Fame form. No better of a place to do it than at Dover. Few drivers have dominated a track in the same way Johnson dominated Dover. It was his best track. In 38 starts, Johnson won 11 times (a track record) and secured a Top-5 in nearly half of those starts. Along with the impressive results, Johnson led a total of 3,113 laps and 12 times he led over 100 laps. While no one is expecting Johnson to contend for the win, perhaps Johnson can contend for a Top-15 this weekend. The NextGen car might be a struggle, but Dover is his track. Either way, keep an eye on Jimmie Johnson.
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