Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Texas

This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Texas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Texas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 9th

Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 3rd, Harrison Burton 33rd, David Starr 37th)
-9 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13

Notes from all projections this year (8 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 14 of 298, 4.70%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 131 of 298, 43.96%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 101 of 298, 33.89%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 8, 12.50%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 41 of 80, 51.25%

Notable results this week

Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Daniel Hemric

The stats say that Tyler Reddick will be riding into the sunset with the trophy after Texas, just like he did with RCR in 2022. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.