This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Texas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Texas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 9th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 3rd, Harrison Burton 33rd, David Starr 37th)
-9 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all projections this year (8 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 14 of 298, 4.70%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 131 of 298, 43.96%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 101 of 298, 33.89%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 8, 12.50%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 41 of 80, 51.25%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Daniel Hemric
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 21st -19 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 32nd -28 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th -2 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 33rd -27 |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 13th -5 |
| 9. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 30th -21 |
| 10. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 5th +5 |
| 11. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +9 |
| 12. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 35th -23 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 17th -4 |
| 14. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 1st +13 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 37th -22 |
| 16. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 6th +11 |
| 18. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 8th +11 |
| 20. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 25th -5 |
| 21. | 43 | Erik Jones | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 18th +4 |
| 23. | 51 | Justin Haley | 24th -1 |
| 24. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 10th +14 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 9th +17 |
| 27. | 4 | Josh Berry | 36th -9 |
| 28. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 22nd +6 |
| 29. | 71 | Zane Smith | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 33 | Austin Hill | 38th -5 |
| 34. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 27th +7 |
| 35. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 29th +6 |
| 36. | 16 | Ty Dillon | 16th +20 |
| 37. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 31st +6 |
| 38. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 20th +18 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
