This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Darlington Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Darlington (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the 6th race this year where a driver projected to finish Top 2 won the race
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Kyle Busch 8th, Chase Briscoe 21st)
-6 drivers finished 1 spot (better or worse) than they were projected
-20 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8
Notes from all projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 20 of 449, 4.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 191 of 449, 42.54%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 165 of 449, 36.75%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 12, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 58 of 120, 48.33%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Brad Keselowski
Disappointment: Alex Bowman
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 6th -5 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 32nd -30 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 34th -31 |
| 4. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 30th -25 |
| 6. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 27th -21 |
| 7. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 36th -28 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 21st -12 |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th -1 |
| 11. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 25th -14 |
| 12. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 2nd +10 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 5th +10 |
| 16. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th +9 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 19th -2 |
| 18. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 24th -6 |
| 19. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 10th +10 |
| 21. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 26th -5 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 20th +3 |
| 24. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 14th +10 |
| 25. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 28th -3 |
| 26. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +18 |
| 27. | 51 | Justin Haley | 9th +18 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st -3 |
| 29. | 4 | Josh Berry | 3rd +26 |
| 30. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 17th +13 |
| 31. | 71 | Zane Smith | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 16th +16 |
| 33. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 22nd +11 |
| 34. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 29th +5 |
| 35. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 18th +17 |
| 36. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 33rd +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
