Monday, December 23, 2024
HomeCup SeriesStatistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Spring Darlington

Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Spring Darlington

This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Darlington Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Darlington (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st

Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the 6th race this year where a driver projected to finish Top 2 won the race
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Kyle Busch 8th, Chase Briscoe 21st)
-6 drivers finished 1 spot (better or worse) than they were projected
-20 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8

Notes from all projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 20 of 449, 4.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 191 of 449, 42.54%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 165 of 449, 36.75%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 12, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 58 of 120, 48.33%

Notable results this week

Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Brad Keselowski
Disappointment: Alex Bowman

After a disappointing Kansas for William Byron the stats say he’ll take his Jeff Gordon throwback to victory at Darlington this weekend. Photo by Meg Oliphant — Getty Images
Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 24 William Byron 6th -5
2. 45 Tyler Reddick 32nd -30
3. 5 Kyle Larson 34th -31
4. 6 Brad Keselowski 1st +3
5. 17 Chris Buescher 30th -25
6. 8 Kyle Busch 27th -21
7. 11 Denny Hamlin 4th +3
8. 12 Ryan Blaney 36th -28
9. 22 Joey Logano 21st -12
10. 1 Ross Chastain 11th -1
11. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 25th -14
12. 54 Ty Gibbs 2nd +10
13. 20 Christopher Bell 13th +0
14. 9 Chase Elliott 12th +2
15. 14 Chase Briscoe 5th +10
16. 23 Bubba Wallace 7th +9
17. 43 Erik Jones 19th -2
18. 99 Daniel Suarez 24th -6
19. 38 Todd Gilliland 15th +4
20. 34 Michael McDowell 10th +10
21. 77 Carson Hocevar 26th -5
22. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 23rd -1
23. 2 Austin Cindric 20th +3
24. 10 Noah Gragson 14th +10
25. 3 Austin Dillon 28th -3
26. 48 Alex Bowman 8th +18
27. 51 Justin Haley 9th +18
28. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 31st -3
29. 4 Josh Berry 3rd +26
30. 41 Ryan Preece 17th +13
31. 71 Zane Smith 35th -4
32. 7 Corey LaJoie 16th +16
33. 21 Harrison Burton 22nd +11
34. 16 Derek Kraus 29th +5
35. 15 Kaz Grala 18th +17
36. 31 Daniel Hemric 33rd +3

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.

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Daniel Smith
Daniel Smithhttps://pitpassnetwork.com
Cup drivers: Kyle Larson & Ross Chastain, Xfinity drivers: SVG & Ryan Sieg, Truck drivers: Grant Enfinger & Jake Garcia

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