This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Kansas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Kansas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 33rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the 5th race this year where a driver projected to finish Top 2 won the race
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Ty Gibbs 10th, Josh Berry 14th)
-4 drivers finished 1 spot (better or worse) than they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all projections this year (11 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 17 of 411, 4.14%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 171 of 411, 41.61%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 152 of 411, 36.98%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 11, 9.09%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 52 of 110, 47.27%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 20th -18 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th -2 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 6th -1 |
| 6. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 32nd -25 |
| 8. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +0 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 19th -10 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -24 |
| 11. | 24 | William Byron | 23rd -12 |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 17th -5 |
| 13. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 9th +4 |
| 14. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 24th -8 |
| 17. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th -8 |
| 18. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 10th +8 |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 27th -8 |
| 20. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 16th +4 |
| 21. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 21st +0 |
| 22. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 2nd +20 |
| 23. | 43 | Corey Heim | 22nd +1 |
| 24. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 37th +13 |
| 25. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 11th +14 |
| 26. | 4 | Josh Berry | 15th +11 |
| 27. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 38th -11 |
| 28. | 71 | Zane Smith | 29th -1 |
| 29. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 26th +4 |
| 31. | 15 | Riley Herbst | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 13th +20 |
| 34. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 14th +20 |
| 35. | 33 | Austin Hill | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 31st +5 |
| 37. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 36th +1 |
| 38. | 51 | Justin Haley | 18th +20 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
