This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Kansas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Kansas (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 33rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-Last week was the 5th race this year where a driver projected to finish Top 2 won the race
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Ty Gibbs 10th, Josh Berry 14th)
-4 drivers finished 1 spot (better or worse) than they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all projections this year (11 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 17 of 411, 4.14%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 171 of 411, 41.61%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 152 of 411, 36.98%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 11, 9.09%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 52 of 110, 47.27%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
Kyle Larson hasn’t faired well when he’s been projected to win yet, but this week the numbers say again that he’ll win up in victory lane this weekend at Kansas. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 20th -18 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th -2 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 6th -1 |
| 6. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 32nd -25 |
| 8. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +0 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 19th -10 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -24 |
| 11. | 24 | William Byron | 23rd -12 |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 17th -5 |
| 13. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 9th +4 |
| 14. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 24th -8 |
| 17. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th -8 |
| 18. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 10th +8 |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 27th -8 |
| 20. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 16th +4 |
| 21. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 21st +0 |
| 22. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 2nd +20 |
| 23. | 43 | Corey Heim | 22nd +1 |
| 24. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 37th +13 |
| 25. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 11th +14 |
| 26. | 4 | Josh Berry | 15th +11 |
| 27. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 38th -11 |
| 28. | 71 | Zane Smith | 29th -1 |
| 29. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 26th +4 |
| 31. | 15 | Riley Herbst | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 28th +4 |
| 33. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 13th +20 |
| 34. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 14th +20 |
| 35. | 33 | Austin Hill | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 31st +5 |
| 37. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 36th +1 |
| 38. | 51 | Justin Haley | 18th +20 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.