This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Dover Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Dover Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: A.J. Allmendinger
Finished: 18th
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-4 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 6th, Denny Hamlin 20th, Riley Herbst 25th, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 33rd)
-10 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-17 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 7 drivers finished inside the Top 7
Notes from all point race projections this year (20 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 37 of 763, 4.85%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 296 of 763, 38.79%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 328 of 763, 42.99%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 20, 20.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 88 of 200, 44.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
Chase Elliott already has 2 Miles the Monster trophies, and according to the stats he’ll pick up a third this weekend. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 6th -5 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 33rd -30 |
| 4. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th -5 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 18th -13 |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | 31st -25 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 3rd +4 |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 5th +3 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 12th -3 |
| 10. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th +6 |
| 11. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 11th +0 |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 21 | Josh Berry | 28th -15 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 10th +4 |
| 15. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 37th -22 |
| 16. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +15 |
| 18. | 43 | Erik Jones | 27th -9 |
| 19. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th +12 |
| 20. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 26th -6 |
| 21. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 32nd -11 |
| 22. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 16th +6 |
| 23. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 35th -12 |
| 24. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 30th -6 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 13th +13 |
| 27. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 19th +8 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 21st +7 |
| 29. | 7 | Justin Haley | 17th +12 |
| 30. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 24th +6 |
| 31. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 25th +6 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 15th +17 |
| 33. | 41 | Cole Custer | 29th +4 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 20th +14 |
| 35. | 38 | Zane Smith | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 34th +2 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 36th +1 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.