This article is a race finish projection for the 2025 Sonoma Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Sonoma Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Road Course (left & right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Michael McDowell
Finished: 32nd
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Noah Gragson 30th)
-For the first time since Texas in May (including All-Star Race) no driver projected to finish Top 2 finished in the Top 2.
-12 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-25 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the 40 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 7 drivers finished inside the Top 7
Notes from all point race projections this year (19 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 33 of 726, 4.55%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 279 of 726, 38.43%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 318 of 726, 43.80%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 19, 21.05%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 84 of 190, 44.21%
Notable results this week
Winner: A.J. Allmendinger
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Bubba Wallace
In 13 Cup starts at Sonoma A.J. Allmendinger doesn’t even have a Top 5 finish, but the stats and his speed say this weekend he gets that Top 5. In the form of a win. Photo by Sarah Crabill — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18th -17 |
| 2. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 24th -22 |
| 3. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 36th -32 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 5th +2 |
| 8. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 16th -8 |
| 9. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 35th -26 |
| 10. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 19th -9 |
| 11. | 24 | William Byron | 8th +3 |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +10 |
| 13. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 10th +3 |
| 14. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 4th +10 |
| 15. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 22 | Joey Logano | 9th +7 |
| 17. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 14th +3 |
| 18. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 12th +6 |
| 19. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 28th -9 |
| 20. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 41 | Cole Custer | 23rd -2 |
| 22. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 11th +11 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 30th -7 |
| 24. | 38 | Zane Smith | 27th -3 |
| 25. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 32nd -6 |
| 27. | 7 | Justin Haley | 15th +12 |
| 28. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 26th +2 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 21st +8 |
| 30. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 31st -1 |
| 31. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 22nd +9 |
| 32. | 43 | Erik Jones | 29th +3 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd +0 |
| 34. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 37th -3 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 17th +18 |
| 36. | 21 | Josh Berry | 13th +23 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 34th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.