This article is a race finish projection for the Fall Talladega Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Talladega Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Superspeedway tracks (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-superspeedway tracks, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 36th
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-7 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (33 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 59 of 1,254, 4.70%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 501 of 1,254, 39.95%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 524 of 1,254, 41.79%
-Correct Winner projections: 6 of 33, 18.18%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 157 of 330, 47.58%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Disappointment: A.J. Allmendinger
Chase Elliott is one of seven different drivers to win at Dega in the Next Gen, but the projection below says he will be the first to do so twice. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 40th -39 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 26th -24 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 25th -22 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 23rd -19 |
| 5. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 38th -33 |
| 6. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 34th -28 |
| 7. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 29th -22 |
| 8. | 43 | Erik Jones | 35th -27 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 7th +2 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 4th +6 |
| 11. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 17th -6 |
| 12. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 15th -3 |
| 13. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 41 | Cole Custer | 5th +9 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 13th +2 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 6th +10 |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 30th -13 |
| 18. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 12th +6 |
| 19. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 24th -5 |
| 20. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 1st +19 |
| 21. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 8th +13 |
| 22. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +19 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th -4 |
| 24. | 22 | Joey Logano | 16th +8 |
| 25. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 20th +5 |
| 26. | 7 | Justin Haley | 39th -13 |
| 27. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 36th -9 |
| 28. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 19th +9 |
| 29. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 10th +19 |
| 30. | 21 | Josh Berry | 33rd -3 |
| 31. | 38 | Zane Smith | 9th +22 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 14th +18 |
| 33. | 66 | Casey Mears | 18th +15 |
| 34. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 37th -3 |
| 35. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 62 | Anthony Alfredo | 21st +15 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +6 |
| 38. | 88 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 11th +17 |
| 39. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 28th +11 |
| 40. | 33 | Austin Hill | 22nd +18 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.