This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Martinsville Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Martinsville Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-5 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 1st, Brad Keselowski 2nd, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 29th, Cody Ware 36th, Timmy Hill 37th)
-The last 4 races have seen a driver projected to finish Top 2 win the race
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (6 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 15 of 226, 6.64%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 86 of 226, 38.05%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 85 of 226, 37.61%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 6, 33.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 30 of 60, 50.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Ryan Blaney’s last Martinsville win came in the Fall of 2024, but the stats and his speed say that changes this weekend. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6th -5 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 9th -7 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 5th -2 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +3 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 1st +5 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th +0 |
| 8. | 21 | Josh Berry | 10th -2 |
| 9. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 36th -27 |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 16th -6 |
| 11. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 12th -1 |
| 12. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 15th -1 |
| 15. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 17th -1 |
| 17. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 14th +3 |
| 18. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th -7 |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 13th +6 |
| 20. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 26th -6 |
| 21. | 48 | Justin Allgaier | 22nd -1 |
| 22. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 20th +2 |
| 23. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 18th +5 |
| 24. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 19th +5 |
| 25. | 38 | Zane Smith | 34th -9 |
| 26. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 24th +2 |
| 27. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th -2 |
| 29. | 41 | Cole Custer | 31st -2 |
| 30. | 43 | Erik Jones | 21st +9 |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 29th +2 |
| 32. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 27th +5 |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 35th -2 |
| 34. | 33 | Austin Hill | 33rd +1 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 37th -2 |
| 36. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 28th +8 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 32nd +5 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.