This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Darlington Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Darlington Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025/26 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Josh Berry 31st, Connor Zilsich 32nd, Cody Ware 35th)
-The last 3 races have seen a driver projected to finish Top 2 win the race
-16 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-22 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-5 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (5 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 10 of 189, 5.29%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 69 of 189, 36.51%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 75 of 189, 39.68%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 5, 20.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 25 of 50, 50.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Ross Chastain
Tyler Reddick is on the pole this weekend for the Darlington race and the stats plus that speed say he ends up with his 4th win of 2026 today. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th -6 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 8th -4 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 34th -29 |
| 6. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 12th -6 |
| 7. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 21st -13 |
| 9. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 32nd -23 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 13th -2 |
| 12. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 5th +7 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -2 |
| 14. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 19th -5 |
| 15. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +12 |
| 16. | 22 | Joey Logano | 33rd -17 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 10th +7 |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 16th +2 |
| 19. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 7th +12 |
| 20. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 4th +16 |
| 21. | 38 | Zane Smith | 22nd -1 |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 25th -3 |
| 23. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 30th -7 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 35th -11 |
| 25. | 21 | Josh Berry | 17th +8 |
| 26. | 48 | Justin Allgaier | 24th +2 |
| 27. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 18th +9 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 29th +0 |
| 30. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 14th +17 |
| 32. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 23rd +9 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 26th +7 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 41 | Cole Custer | 28th +7 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 36th +0 |
| 37. | 66 | Timmy Hill | 37th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.