This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Kansas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Kansas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Ty Gibbs
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Austin Cindric 16th, Riley Herbst 21st)
-10 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished inside the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (8 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 18 of 300, 6.00%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 132 of 300, 44.00%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 96 of 300, 32.00%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 8, 25.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 46 of 80, 57.50%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
Toyota has won both Intermediate track races so far in 2026 and the stats plus speed say that trend continues with Tyler Reddick winning at Kansas this weekend. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 20th -18 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 7th -4 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th -4 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th -5 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 24th -18 |
| 7. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 3rd +8 |
| 12. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 19th -7 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 6th +8 |
| 15. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 11th +4 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 18th -2 |
| 17. | 67 | Corey Heim | 15th +2 |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 26th -8 |
| 19. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 28th -9 |
| 20. | 38 | Zane Smith | 32nd -12 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 16th +5 |
| 22. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 36th -14 |
| 23. | 22 | Joey Logano | 30th -7 |
| 24. | 43 | Erik Jones | 23rd +1 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st +4 |
| 26. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 34th -8 |
| 27. | 21 | Josh Berry | 27th +0 |
| 28. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 29th -1 |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 22nd +7 |
| 30. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 31st -1 |
| 31. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 12th +20 |
| 33. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +16 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 14th +20 |
| 35. | 41 | Cole Custer | 25th +10 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Wre | 37th -1 |
| 37. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 33rd +4 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.