This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Bristol Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Bristol Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025/26 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 6th
Last weeks winner: Chase Elliott
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Christopher Bell 7th)
-For the first time since Atlanta the winner was not projected to finish Top 2
-16 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-27 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-Only 1 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish (Bubba Wallace was projected to finish 9th and finished 36th)
-8 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished inside the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (7 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 16 of 263, 6.08%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 113 of 263, 42.97%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 86 of 263, 32.70%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 7, 28.57%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 38 of 70, 54.29%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
Ryan Blaney is on Pole this weekend and that plus his stats plus practice speed say he will be the winner at Bristol this weekend. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd -1 |
| 3. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 10th -7 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 8th -2 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 27th -20 |
| 8. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 20th -10 |
| 11. | 22 | Joey Logano | 7th +4 |
| 12. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 24th -12 |
| 13. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 11th +2 |
| 14. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 22nd -8 |
| 15. | 38 | Zane Smith | 19th -4 |
| 16. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 16th +0 |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 14th +3 |
| 18. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 13th +5 |
| 19. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 37th -18 |
| 20. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 26th -6 |
| 21. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 21st +0 |
| 22. | 24 | William Byron | 30th -8 |
| 23. | 21 | Josh Berry | 32nd -9 |
| 24. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 35th -11 |
| 25. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 33rd -8 |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 18th +8 |
| 27. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 15th +12 |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 12th +17 |
| 30. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 6th +25 |
| 32. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 34th -2 |
| 33. | 43 | Erik Jones | 23rd +10 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 29th +5 |
| 35. | 41 | Cole Custer | 28th +7 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +5 |
| 37. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 36th +1 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.